AI Timelines

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the speeddynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed. developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it's the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the speed of AI progress after human-level AI is developed.