Existential Risk

• Machine Intelligence Research Institute
• The Future of Humanity Institute
• The Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology
• Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
• Saving Humanity from Homo Sapiens
• Skoll Global Threats Fund (To Safeguard Humanity from Global Threats)
• Foresight Institute
• Defusing the Nuclear Threat
• Leverage Research
• The Lifeboat Foundation
   

Highlighted Posts

• Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation
• Our society lacks good self-preservation mechanisms
• Disambiguating doom
• Existential Risk

The Oxford Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) was founded by Bostrom in 2005,2005 in part to study existential risks. Other institutions with a generalist focus on existential risk include the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.

An existential risk (or x-risk) is a risk that poses astronomically large negative consequences for humanity, such as human extinction or a permanent global totalitarian government.totalitarianism.

An existential risk (or x-risk) is a risk posingthat poses astronomically large negative consequences for humanity, such as human extinction or a permanent global totalitarian government.

An existential risk is one that threatens the entire future of humanity. [...]

“Humanity”, in this context, does not mean “the biological species Homo sapiens”. If we humans were to evolve into another species, or merge or replace ourselves with intelligent machines, this would not necessarily mean that an existential catastrophe had occurred — although it might if the quality of life enjoyed by those new life forms turns out to be far inferior to that enjoyed by humans.

An existential risk (or x-risk) is a risk posing permanentastronomically large negative consequences to humanity which can never be undonefor humanity, such as human extinction or a permanent global totalitarian government.

Nick Bostrom introduced the extinction of human civilization or event of similar severity, e.g. an eternal evil dictatorship. 

Interm "existential risk" in his seminal2002 paper on the subject "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards."¹,  Nick In the paper, Bostrom defined an existential risk as:

The total negative impactOxford Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) was founded by Bostrom in 2005, in part to study existential risks. Other institutions with a generalist focus on existential risk include the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.

FHI's existential-risk.org FAQ notes regarding the definition of "existential risk":

If we humans were to evolve into another species, or merge or replace ourselves with intelligent machines, this would not necessarily mean that an existential risk is onecatastrophe had occurred — although it might if the quality of the greatest negative impacts conceived of. Such an event could not only annihilate life as we value it from Earth, but would also severely damage all Earth-originating intelligentenjoyed by those new life potential.forms turns out to be far inferior to that enjoyed by humans.

An Existential risksexistential risk or(or x-risksrisk are risks whose) is a risk posing permanent large negative consequences involveto humanity which can never be undone such as the extinction of human civilization or eventsevent of a similar severity (such asseverity, e.g. an eternal evil dictatorship)dictatorship. 

In his seminal paper on the subject ¹,  Nick Bostrom defined an existential risk as:

One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.

The total negative impact of an existential risk is one of the greatest negative impacts conceived of. Such an event could not only annihilate life as we value it from Earth, but would also severely damage all Earth-originating intelligent life potential.

Classification of Existential Risks

Bostrom ² proposes a series of classifications for existential risks:

• Bangs - Earthly intelligent life is extinguished relatively suddenly by any cause; the prototypical end of humanity. Examples of bangs include deliberate or accidental misuse of nanotechnology, nuclear holocaust, the end of our simulation, or an unfriendly AI.
• Crunches - The potential humanity had to enhance itself indefinitely is forever eliminated, although humanity continues. Possible crunches include an exhaustion of resources, social or governmental pressure ending technological development, and even future technological development proving an unsurpassable challenge before the creation of a superintelligence.
• Shrieks - Humanity enhances itself, but explores only a narrow portion of its desirable possibilities. As the criteria for desirability haven't been defined yet, this category is mainly undefined. However, a flawed friendly AI incorrectly interpreting our values, a superhuman upload deciding its own values and imposing them on the rest of humanity, and an intolerant government outlawing social progress would certainly qualify.
• Whimpers - Though humanity is enduring, only a fraction of our potential is ever achieved. Spread across the galaxy and expanding at near light-speed, we might find ourselves doomed by ours or another being's catastrophic physics experimentation, destroying reality at light-speed. A prolonged galactic war leading to our extinction or severe limitation would also be a whimper. More darkly, humanity might develop until its values were disjoint with ours today, making their civilization worthless by present values.

The total negative results of an existential risk could amount to the total of potential future lives not being realized. A rough and conservative calculation³ gives us a total of 10^54 potential future humans lives – smarter, happier and kinder then we are. Hence, almost no other task would amount to so much positive impact than existential risk reduction.

Existential risks also present an unique challenge because of their irreversible nature. We will never, by definition, experience and survive an extinction risk⁴ and so cannot learn from our mistakes. They are subject to strong observational selection effects⁵. One cannot estimate their future probability based on the past, because bayesianly speaking, the conditional probability of a past existential catastrophe given our present existence is always 0, no matter how high the probability of an existential risk really is. Instead, indirect estimates have to be used, such as possible existential catastrophes happening elsewhere. A high extinction risk probability could be functioning as a Great Filter and explain why there is no evidence of spacial colonization.

Another related idea is that of a suffering risk (or s-risk).

The focus on existential risks on LessWrong dates back to Nick Bostrom's 2002 paper Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development. It argues that "the chief goal for utilitarians should be to reduce existential risk". Bostrom writes:

Blog postsHighlighted Posts

• Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation by Roko
• Our society lacks good self-preservation mechanisms by Roko
• Disambiguating doom by steven0461
• Existential Risk by lukeprog

See also

AI

Altruism

Effective Altruism

1. BOSTROM, Nick. (2002) "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002. 
2. BOSTROM, Nick. (2012) "Existential Risk Reduction as the Most Important Task for Humanity". Global Policy, forthcoming, 2012.
3. BOSTROM, Nick & SANDBERG, Anders & CIRKOVIC, Milan. (2010) "Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks" Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 10 (2010): 1495-1506.
4. Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković, ed (2008). Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press.
5. Milan M. Ćirković (2008). "Observation Selection Effects and global catastrophic risks". Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press.
6. Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (2008). "Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks". Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. (PDF)
7. Richard A. Posner (2004). Catastrophe Risk and Response. Oxford University Press. (DOC)