AI ALIGNMENT FORUMTags
AF

Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to [Link-post] On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates by Raymond Arnold at 9d

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Applied to Forecasting Fusion Power by Raymond Arnold at 10d

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Applied to Kolmogorov's AI Forecast by Raymond Arnold at 18d

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Applied to Operationalizing two tasks in Gary Marcus’s AGI challenge by Raymond Arnold at 18d

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Applied to Is AI Progress Impossible To Predict? by Ruben Bloom at 1mo

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Applied to Predicting the Elections with Deep Learning - Part 1 - Results by Raymond Arnold at 1mo

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Applied to Sealed predictions thread by Raymond Arnold at 2mo

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Applied to Omicron #16: Danger in China by Yitzi Litt at 3mo

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Applied to What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month? by DanielFilan at 4mo

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Applied to 2022 ACX predictions: market prices by Ruben Bloom at 4mo

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Applied to Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets by Tobias D. at 4mo

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Applied to IMO challenge bet with Eliezer by Austin Chen at 4mo

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Applied to 2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold by Tobias D. at 5mo

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Applied to Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions by Ruben Bloom at 5mo

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Applied to Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022 by Tobias D. at 5mo

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Applied to The IHME Report by Tobias D. at 6mo

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Applied to Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution by Ruben Bloom at 6mo

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Applied to Predictions for 2022 by Ruben Bloom at 6mo

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Applied to New Year's Prediction Thread (2022) by Ruben Bloom at 6mo