AI ALIGNMENT FORUMTags
AF

Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI by Steve Byrnes at 8d

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Applied to Ad Fraud Detection Prediction Market by Raymond Arnold at 12d

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Applied to What are your AI predictions for 2023? by Raymond Arnold at 1mo

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Applied to A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability by Yitzi Litt at 2mo

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Applied to How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? by Ishan Mukherjee at 2mo

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Applied to AI Forecasting Research Ideas by Ruben Bloom at 2mo

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Applied to Estimating the probability that FTX Future Fund grant money gets clawed back by Ruben Bloom at 3mo

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Applied to Metaculus Announces The Million Predictions Hackathon by Raymond Arnold at 3mo

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Applied to Signals of war in August 2021 by Ruben Bloom at 3mo

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Applied to AI Research Program Prediction Markets by Ruben Bloom at 3mo

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Applied to Calibration of a thousand predictions by Ruben Bloom at 4mo

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Applied to Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war by jam_brand at 4mo

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Applied to Russia will do a nuclear test by RobertM at 4mo

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Applied to AGI by 2050 probability less than 1% by Ruben Bloom at 4mo

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Applied to Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app by Sage at 4mo

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Applied to How should DeepMind's Chinchilla revise our AI forecasts? by Cleo Nardo at 4mo

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Applied to Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines? by elifland at 4mo

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Applied to Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts by Raymond Arnold at 5mo

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Applied to Alex Lawsen On Forecasting AI Progress by Ruben Bloom at 5mo

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Applied to Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world by Yitzi Litt at 5mo