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AI ALIGNMENT FORUM
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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
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Applied to
[Link-post] On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates
by
Raymond Arnold
at
9d
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Forecasting Fusion Power
by
Raymond Arnold
at
10d
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Kolmogorov's AI Forecast
by
Raymond Arnold
at
18d
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Operationalizing two tasks in Gary Marcus’s AGI challenge
by
Raymond Arnold
at
18d
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Applied to
Is AI Progress Impossible To Predict?
by
Ruben Bloom
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1mo
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Applied to
Predicting the Elections with Deep Learning - Part 1 - Results
by
Raymond Arnold
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1mo
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Sealed predictions thread
by
Raymond Arnold
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2mo
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Omicron #16: Danger in China
by
Yitzi Litt
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3mo
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What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month?
by
DanielFilan
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4mo
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Applied to
2022 ACX predictions: market prices
by
Ruben Bloom
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4mo
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Applied to
Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets
by
Tobias D.
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4mo
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Applied to
IMO challenge bet with Eliezer
by
Austin Chen
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4mo
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Applied to
2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
by
Tobias D.
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5mo
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Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
by
Ruben Bloom
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5mo
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Applied to
Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
by
Tobias D.
at
5mo
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Applied to
The IHME Report
by
Tobias D.
at
6mo
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Applied to
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
by
Ruben Bloom
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6mo
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Applied to
Predictions for 2022
by
Ruben Bloom
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6mo
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Applied to
New Year's Prediction Thread (2022)
by
Ruben Bloom
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6mo