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AI ALIGNMENT FORUM
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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
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Applied to
Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI
by
Steve Byrnes
at
8d
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Applied to
Ad Fraud Detection Prediction Market
by
Raymond Arnold
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12d
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What are your AI predictions for 2023?
by
Raymond Arnold
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1mo
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A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
by
Yitzi Litt
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2mo
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Applied to
How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
by
Ishan Mukherjee
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2mo
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AI Forecasting Research Ideas
by
Ruben Bloom
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2mo
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Applied to
Estimating the probability that FTX Future Fund grant money gets clawed back
by
Ruben Bloom
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3mo
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Applied to
Metaculus Announces The Million Predictions Hackathon
by
Raymond Arnold
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3mo
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Applied to
Signals of war in August 2021
by
Ruben Bloom
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3mo
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Applied to
AI Research Program Prediction Markets
by
Ruben Bloom
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3mo
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Applied to
Calibration of a thousand predictions
by
Ruben Bloom
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4mo
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Applied to
Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
by
jam_brand
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4mo
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Applied to
Russia will do a nuclear test
by
RobertM
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4mo
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Applied to
AGI by 2050 probability less than 1%
by
Ruben Bloom
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4mo
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Applied to
Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app
by
Sage
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4mo
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Applied to
How should DeepMind's Chinchilla revise our AI forecasts?
by
Cleo Nardo
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4mo
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Applied to
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
by
elifland
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4mo
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Applied to
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
by
Raymond Arnold
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5mo
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Applied to
Alex Lawsen On Forecasting AI Progress
by
Ruben Bloom
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5mo
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Applied to
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
by
Yitzi Litt
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5mo