Squiggle is a special-purpose programming language for probabilistic estimation. Think: "Guesstimate as a programming language." Squiggle is free and open-source.
Read the overview.
- Allow non-experts to see the "sum" of views on a question
- Allow expression of estimated distributions and functions easily
Squiggle is not
Models vs estimation functions
- A key notion is the difference between models and estimation functions
- Models are high detail and expensive to run. They make implications about causality
- Explanation functions used cached date and are cheap to run
- The world is a model, a photograph or video game simulator is an estimation function
The world is made of complex models, but we want answers to simpler questions - what is the most pressing thing to work on? How do we reduce risk? What am I going to have for lunch?...