We're trying to address cases where the human isn't actually able to update on all of D and form a posterior based on that. We're trying to approximate 'what the human posterior would be if they had been able to look at all of D'. So to do that, we learn the human prior, and we learn the human likelihood, then have the ML do the computationally-intensive part of looking at all of D and updating based on everything in there.
Does that make sense?
Starting with amplification as a baseline; am I correct to infer that imitative generalisation only boosts capabilities, and doesn't give you any additional safety properties?
I think the distinction isn't actually super clear, because you can usually trade off capabilities problems and safety problems. I think of it as expanding the range of questions you can get aligned answers to in a reasonable number of steps. If you're just doing IDA/debate, and you try to get your model to give you answers to questions where the model only knows the an... (read more)
That is a concern, but only in the case where there's no answer that has an argument tree that bottoms out in depth<D. As long as there exists an answer that is supported by a depth<D tree, this answer will beat the answers only supported by depth>D argument trees.
So there is a case where the debaters are not incentivised to be honest; the case where the debaters know something but there's no human-understandable argument for it that bottoms out in <D steps. This is where we get the PSPACE constraint.
If we include discussion of cro... (read more)
I don't think 'assuming one player is honest' and 'not trusting answers by default' are in contradiction. if the judge assumes one player is honest, then if they see two different answers they don't know which one to trust, but if they only see one answer (the debaters agree on an answer/the answer is not challenged by the opposing debater) then they can trust that answer.
I was trying to describe something that's the same as the judging procedure in that doc! I might have made a mistake, but I'm pretty sure the key piece about recursion payments is the same. Apologies that things are unclear. I'm happy to try to clarify, if there were particular aspects that seem different to you.
Yeah, I think the infinite tree case should work just the same - ie an answer that's only supported by an infinite tree will behave like an answer that's not supported (it will lose to an answer with a finite tree and draw... (read more)
In the ball-attached-to-a-pole example, the honest debater has assigned probabilities that are indistinguishable from what you would do if you knew noting except that the claim is false. (I.e., assign probabilities that doubt each component equally.) I'm curious how difficult it is to find the flaw in this argument structure. Have you done anything like showing these transcripts to other experts and seeing if they will be able to answer it?
Not systematically; I would be excited about people doing these experiments. One tricky thing is that you might t... (read more)
It seems like the only thing stopping z from primarily containing object-level knowledge about the world is the human prior about the unlikelihood of object-level knowledge. But humans are really bad at assigning priors even to relatively simple statements - this is the main reason that we need science.
Agree that humans are not necessarily great at assigning priors. The main response to this is that we don't have a way to get better priors than an amplified human's best prior. If amplified humans think the NN prior is better than their prior, the... (read more)
Thanks for the post, I'm excited that you're thinking about debate!I think I disagree with the claim you're making about being able to avoid requiring the judge to assume that one player is honest (but I might be confused about what you're proposing). Basically, it sounds like you're saying that we can get good answers by just running the whole debate and throwing out answers that turn out to have a defeater, or a defeater-defeater-defeater, or whatever. But if this is the only guarantee we're providing, then we're going to need to run an extremely la... (read more)
The standard argument against having a non-zero-sum debate game is that then you may incentivise your debaters to collude. I don't know if you've seen our most recent debate rules and attempt at analysis of whether they provide the desired behavior - seems somewhat relevant to what you're thinking about here.
To be clear, I think this is a good suggestion and is close to how I imagine we'd actually run debate in practice. It just doesn't get us beyond MA if the debaters only write P-size arguments.
I'd be interested to hear more detail of your thoughts on how we might use robustness techniques!
Yep, planning to put up a post about that soon. The short argument is something like:The equivalent of an obfuscated argument for IDA is a decomposition that includes questions the model doesn't know how to answer. We can't always tell the difference between an IDA tree that uses an obfuscated decomposition and gets the wrong answer, vs an IDA tree that uses a good decomposition and gets the right answer, without unpacking the entire tree
I just mean that this method takes order(length of argument in judge-understandable language) time. So if the argument is large then you're going to need to let the debate run for a long time. This is as opposed to the previous hope that even if the argument tree is exp-sized, the debate can run in p-time
Thanks!Yep, this does work, but limits us to questions where the argument in judge-understandable language is short enough that the debaters can write the whole thing down. So if the debaters run in P-time at deployment time, this gives us MA, not PSPACE as originally hoped.
One counterexample is Manhattan Project - they developed two different designs simultaneously because they weren't sure which would work better. From wikipedia: Two types of atomic bombs were developed concurrently during the war: a relatively simple gun-type fission weapon and a more complex implosion-type nuclear weapon.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project#:~:text=The%20Manhattan%20Project%20was%20a,Tube%20Alloys%20project)%20and%20Canada.
Both debaters make claims. Any claims that are only supported by circular arguments will be ignored. If an honest claim that's supported by a good argument is disputed, the honest debater will pay to recurse, and will give their good argument
I see myself as trying to construct a theory of normativity which gets that "by construction", IE, we can't expect to find any mechanism which does better because if we could say anything about what that mechanism does better then we could tell it to the system, and the system would take it into account.
Nice, this is what I was trying to say but was struggling to phrase it. I like this.I guess I usually think of HCH as having this property, as long as the thinking time for each human is long enough, the tree is deep enough, and we're correct about the hope... (read more)
However, that only works if we have the right prior. We could try to learn the prior from humans, which gets us 99% of the way there... but as I've mentioned earlier, human imitation does not get us all the way. Humans don't perfectly endorse their own reactions.
Note that Learning the Prior uses an amplified human (ie, a human with access to a model trained via IDA/Debate/RRM). So we can do a bit better than a base human - e.g. could do something like having an HCH tree where many humans generate possible feedback and other humans look at the feedback and ... (read more)
FYI/nit: at first glance I thought extorsion was supposed to mean something different from extortion (I've never seen it spelt with the s) and this was a little confusing.
Ah, yeah. I think the key thing is that by default a claim is not trusted unless the debaters agree on it. If the dishonest debater disputes some honest claim, where honest has an argument for their answer that actually bottoms out, dishonest will lose - the honest debater will pay to recurse until they get to a winning node. If the the dishonest debater makes some claim and plan to make a circular argument for it, the honest debater will give an alternative answer but not pay to recurse. If the dishonest debater doesn't pay to recurse, the judge... (read more)
Suppose by strong induction that M always gives the right answer immediately for all sets of size less than n
Pretty sure debate can also access R if you make this strong of an assumption - ie assume that debaters give correct answers for all questions that can be answered with a debate tree of size <n. I think the sort of claim that's actually useful is going to look more like 'we can guarantee that we'll get a reasonable training signal for problems in [some class]'Ie, suppose M gives correct answers some fraction of the time. Are t... (read more)
I think for debate you can fix the circular argument problem by requiring debaters to 'pay' (sacrifice some score) to recurse on a statement of their choice. If a debater repeatedly pays to recurse on things that don't resolve before the depth limit, then they'll lose.
But note that humans are far from fully consequentialist, since we often obey deontological constraints or constraints on the types of reasoning we endorse.
I think the ways in which humans are not fully consequentialist is much broader - we often do things because of habit, instinct, because doing that thing feels rewarding itself, because we're imitating someone else, etc.
Yep, or in comments. Thanks!
That's correct about simultaneity.
Yeah, the questions and answers can be arbitrary, doesn't have to be X and ¬X.
I'm not completely sure whether Scott's method would work given how we're defining the meaning of questions, especially in the middle of the debate. The idea is to define the question by how a snapshot of the questioner taken when they wrote the question would answer questions about what they meant. So in this case, if you asked the questioner 'is your question equivalent to 'should I eat potatoes tonight?... (read more)
Yeah I also thought this might just be true already, for similar reasons
Of course GPT-3 isn't aligned, its objective is to output the most likely next word, ie imitate text on the internet. It seems pretty certain that if you give it a prompt that tells it it should be imitating some part of the internet where someone says something dumb, it will say something dumb, and if you give it a prompt that tells it it's imitating something where someone says something smart, it will "try" to say something smart. This question seems weird to me, Am I missing something?
This question seems weird to me, Am I missing something?
I think there are two interesting parts. First, do we now have an example of an AI not using cognitive capacities that it had, because the 'face' it's presenting wouldn't have those cognitive capacities? If so, we can point to this whenever people say "but that wouldn't happen" or "why would you expect that to happen?" or so on; now we can say "because of this observation" instead of "because our models anticipate that will happen in the fut... (read more)
I agree. And I thought Arthur Breitman had a good point on one of the related Twitter threads:
GPT-3 didn't "pretend" not to know. A lot of this is the AI dungeon environment. If you just prompt the raw GPT-3 with: "A definition of a monotreme follows" it'll likely do it right. But if you role play, sure, it'll predict that your stoner friend or young nephew don't know.
I have the same confusion
You might find this paper interesting. It does a similar decomposition with the dynamics of differentiable games (where the 'preferences' for how to change your strategy may not be the gradient of any function)
"The key result is to decompose the second-order dynamics into two components. The first is related to potential games, which reduce to gradient descent on an implicit function; the second relates to Hamiltonian games, a new class of games that obey a conservation law, akin to conservation laws in classical mechanical systems."