All of ChosunOne's Comments + Replies

Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

Here is a link to my forecast

AGI Timeline

And here are the rough justifications for this distribution:

I don't have much else to add beyond what others have posted, though it's in part influenced by an AIRCS event I attended in the past.  Though I do remember being laughed at for suggesting GPT-2 represented a very big advance toward AGI.  

I've also never really understood the resistance to why current models of AI are incapable of AGI.  Sure, we don't have AGI with current models, but how do we know it isn't a question of scale?  Our bra... (read more)

1Alex Turner2y
First, you ask why it isn't a question of scale. But then you seem to wonder why we need any more scaling? This seems to mix up two questions: can current hardware support AGI for some learning paradigm, and can it support AGI for the deep learning paradigm?