All of Daniel_Eth's Comments + Replies

Paths To High-Level Machine Intelligence

Thanks for the comments!

Re: The Hard Paths Hypothesis

I think it's very unlikely that Earth has seen other species as intelligent as humans (with the possible exception of other Homo species). In short, I suspect there is strong selection pressure for (at least many of) the different traits that allow humans to have civilization to go together. Consider dexterity – such skills allow one to use intelligence to make tools; that is, the more dexterous one is, the greater the evolutionary value of high intelligence, and the more intelligent one is, the greater ... (read more)

Paths To High-Level Machine Intelligence

Thanks!

I agree that symbolic doesn't have to mean not bitter lesson-y (though in practice I think there are often effects in that direction). I might even go a bit further than you here and claim that a system with a significant amount of handcrafted aspects might still be bitter lesson-y, under the right conditions. The bitter lesson doesn't claim that the maximally naive and brute-force method possible will win, but instead that, among competing methods, more computationally-scalable methods will generally win over time (as compute increases). This shoul... (read more)

Paths To High-Level Machine Intelligence

I think very few people would explicitly articulate a view like that, but I also think there are people who hold a view along the lines of, "Moore will continue strong for a number of years, and then after that compute/$ will grow at <20% as fast" – in which case, if we're bottlenecked on hardware, whether Moore ends several years earlier vs later could have a large effect on timelines.

Analogies and General Priors on Intelligence

One more crux that we should have included (under the section on "The Human Brain"):
"Human brain appears to be a scaled-up version of a more generic mammalian/primate brain"

Analogies and General Priors on Intelligence

So just to be clear, the model isn't necessarily endorsing the claim, just saying that the claim is a potential crux.

3romeostevensit1moI understand, thought it was worth commenting on anyway.