All of Eli Tyre's Comments + Replies

Misconceptions about continuous takeoff
Yet, at no point during this development did any project leap forward by a huge margin. Instead, every paper built upon the last one by making minor improvements and increasing the compute involved. Since these minor improvements nonetheless happened rapidly, the result is that the GANs followed a fast development relative to the lifetimes of humans.

Does anyone have time series data on the effectiveness of Go-playing AI? Does that similarly follow a gradual trend?

AlphaGo seems much closer to "one project leaps forward by a huge margin." But maybe I'm mistaken about how big an improvement AlpahGo was over previous Go AIs.

0Kaj Sotala3y
Miles Brundage argues that "it’s an impressive achievement, but considering it in this larger context should cause us to at least slightly decrease our assessment of its size/suddenness/significance in isolation []".