All of Stephen Bennett (Previously GWS)'s Comments + Replies

I'm a bit confused by your response. First, the meat of the argument:

You are implicitly comparing two models:  and , which make predictions about the world. Each model makes several claims, including the shape of the function governing AI improvement and about how the shape of that function comes about[1]. So far as I can tell, a typical central claim of people who endorse  is that AIs working on themselves will allow their capabilities to grow hyper-exponentially. Those who endorse  don't seem to disp... (read more)

4Daniel Kokotajlo1y
Note that those who endorse Mslow don't think exponential growth will cut it; it'll be much faster than that (in line with the long-term trends in human history, which are faster than exponential). I'm thinking of e.g. Paul Christiano and Ajeya Cotra here who I'm pretty sure agree growth has been and will continue to be superexponential (the recent trend of apparent exponential growth being an aberration). My complaining about the term "continuous takeoff" was a response to Matthew Barnett and others' usage of the term, not Yitz', since as you say Yitz didn't use it. Anyhow, to the meat: None of the "hard takeoff people" or hard takeoff models predicted or would predict that the sorts of minor productivity advancements we are starting to see would lead to a FOOM by now. Ergo, it's a mistake to conclude from our current lack of FOOM that those models made incorrect predictions.