I think this comment is lumping together the following assumptions under the "continuity" label, as if there is a reason to believe that either they are all correct or all incorrect (and I don't see why):

1. There is large distance in model space between models that behave very differently.
2. Takeoff will be slow.
3. It is feasible to create models that are weak enough to not pose an existential risk yet able to sufficiently help with alignment.

I bet more on scenarios where we get AGI when politics is very different compared to today.

I agree that just before... (read more)

Even with adequate closure and excellent opsec, there can still be risks related to researchers on the team quitting and then joining a competing effort or starting their own AGI company (and leveraging what they've learned).

Do you generally think that people in the AI safety community should write publicly about what they think is "the missing AGI ingredient"?

It's remarkable that this post was well received on the AI Alignment Forum (18 karma points before my strong downvote).

Suppose that each subnetwork does general reasoning and thus up until some point during training the subnetworks are useful for minimizing loss.

If the model that is used as a Microscope AI does not use any optimization (search), how will it compute the probability that, say, Apple's engineers will overcome a certain technical challenge?

What I can do is point to my history of acting in ways that, I hope, show my consistent commitment to doing what is best for the longterm future (even if of course some people with different models of what is “best for the longterm future” will have legitimate disagreements with my choices of past actions), and pledge to remain in control of Conjecture and shape its goals and actions appropriately.

Sorry, do you mean that you are actually pledging to "remain in control of Conjecture"? Can some other founder(s) make that pledge too if it's necessary for m... (read more)

Your website says: "WE ARE AN ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY DEDICATED TO MAKING AGI SAFE", and also "we are committed to avoiding dangerous AI race dynamics".

How are you planning to avoid exacerbating race dynamics, given that you're creating a new 'AGI company'? How will you prove to other AI companies—that do pursue AGI—that you're not competing with them?

Do you believe that most of the AI safety community approves of the creation of this new company? In what ways (if any) have you consulted with the community before starting the company?

I'm late to the party by a month, but I'm interested in your take (especially Rohin's) on the following:

Conditional on an existential catastrophe happening due to AI systems, what is your credence that the catastrophe will occur only after the involved systems are deployed?

The two pieces of logic can use the same activation values as their input. For example, suppose they both (independently) cause failure if a certain activation value is above some threshold. (In which case each piece of logic "ruins" a different critical activation value).

Regarding the following part of the view that you commented on:

But if we want AI to implement them, we should mainly work on solving foundational issues in decision and game theory with an aim toward AI.

Just wanted to add: It may be important to consider potential downside risks of such work. It may be important to be vigilant when working on certain topics in game theory and e.g. make certain binding commitments before investigating certain issues, because otherwise one might lose a commitment race in logical time. (I think this is a special case of a... (read more)

To make sure I understand your notation, $f_1$ is some set of weights, right? If it's a set of multiple weights I don't know what you mean when you write $\frac{\partial y}{\partial f_1}$.

There should also exist at least some f1,f2 where C(f_1,f_1)≠C(f_2,f_2), since otherwise C no longer depends on the pair of redundant networks at all

(I don't yet understand the purpose of this claim, but it seems to me wrong. If $C(f_1,f_1)=C(f_2,f_2)$ for every $f_1,f_2$, why is it true that $C(f_1,f_2)$ does not depend on $f_1$ and $f_2$ when $f_1\ne f_2$?)

But gradient descent doesn’t modify a neural network one weight at a time

Sure, but the gradient component that is associated with a given weight is still zero if updating that weight alone would not affect loss.

This post is essentially the summary of a long discussion on the EleutherAI discord about trying to exhibit gradient hacking in real models by hand crafting an example.

I wouldn't say that this work it attempting to "exhibit gradient hacking". (Succeeding in that would require to create a model that can actually model SGD.) Rather, my understanding is that this work is trying to demonstrate techniques that might be used in a gradient hacking scenario.

There are a few ways to protect a subnetwork $f$ from being modified by gradient descent that I can think

In the bandits example, it seems like the caravan can unilaterally employ SPI to reduce the badness of the bandit's threat. For example, the caravan can credibly commit that they will treat Nerf guns identically to regular guns, so that (a) any time one of them is shot with a Nerf gun, they will flop over and pretend to be a corpse, until the heist has been resolved, and (b) their probability of resisting against Nerf guns will be the same as the probability of resisting against actual guns. In this case the bandits might as well use Nerf guns (perhaps be

But if the agent is repeatedly carrying out its commitment to fail, then there’ll be pretty strong pressure from gradient descent to change that. What changes might that pressure lead to? The two most salient options to me:

1. The agent’s commitment to carrying out gradient hacking is reduced.
2. The agent’s ability to notice changes implemented by gradient descent is reduced.

In a gradient hacking scenario, we should expect the malicious conditionally-fail-on-purpose logic to be optimized for such outcomes not to occur. For example, the malicious logic may ... (read more)

That quote does not seem to mention the "stochastic sensitivity issue". In the post that you linked to, "(3)" refers to:

3. Not all environments have the right symmetries
   • But most ones we think about seem to

So I'm still not sure what you meant when you wrote "The phenomena you discuss are explained in the paper (EDIT: top of page 9), and in other posts, and discussed at length in other comment threads."

(Again, I'm not aware of any previous mention of the "stochastic sensitivity issue" other than in my comment here.)

Thanks for the figure. I'm afraid I didn't understand it. (I assume this is a gridworld environment; what does "standing near intact vase" mean? Can the robot stand in the same cell as the intact vase?)

&You’re playing a tad fast and loose with your involution argument. Unlike the average-optimal case, you can’t just map one set of states to another for all-discount-rates reasoning.

I don't follow (To be clear, I was not trying to apply any theorem from the paper via that involution). But does this mean you are NOT making that claim ("most agents wil... (read more)

The claim should be: most agents will not immediately break the vase.

I don't see why that claim is correct either, for a similar reason. If you're assuming here that most reward functions incentivize avoiding immediately breaking the vase then I would argue that that assumption is incorrect, and to support this I would point to the same involution from my previous comment.

The phenomena you discuss are explained in the paper (EDIT: top of page 9), and in other posts, and discussed at length in other comment threads. But this post isn't about the stochastic sensitivity issue, and I don't think it should have to talk about the sensitivity issue.

I noticed that after my previous comment you've edited your comment to include the page number and the link. Thanks.

I still couldn't find in the paper (top of page 9) an explanation for the "stochastic sensitivity issue". Perhaps you were referring to the following:

randomly generat

As a quick summary (read the paper and sequence if you want more details), they show that for any distribution over reward functions, if there are more "options" available after action 1 than after action 2, then most of the orbit of the distribution (the set of distributions induced by applying any permutation on the MDP, which thus permutes the initial distribution) has optimal policies that do action 1.

Also, this claim is missing the "disjoint requirement" and so it is incorrect even without the "they show that" part (i.e. it's not just that the theorem... (read more)

Thanks.

We can construct an involution over reward functions that transforms every state by switching the is-the-vase-broken bit in the state's representation. For every reward function that "wants to preserve the vase" we can apply on it the involution and get a reward function that "wants to break the vase".

(And there are the reward functions that are indifferent about the vase which the involution map to themselves.)

The phenomena you discuss are explainted in the paper, and in other posts, and discussed at length in other comment threads.

I haven't found an explanation about the "stochastic sensitivity issue" in the paper, can you please point me to a specific section/page/quote? All that I found about this in the paper was the sentence:

Our theorems apply to stochastic environments, but we present a deterministic case study for clarity.

(I'm also not aware of previous posts/threads that discuss this, other than my comment here.)

I brought up this issue as a demons... (read more)

Are you saying that my first sentence ("Most of the reward functions are either indifferent about the vase or want to break the vase") is in itself factually wrong, or rather the rest of the quoted text?

So I think it is an accurate description, in that it flags that “options” is not just the normal intuitive version of options.

I think the quoted description is not at all what the theorems in the paper show, no matter what concept the word "options" (in scare quotes) refers to. In order to apply the theorems we need to show that an involution with certain properties exist; not that <some set of things after action 1> is larger than <some set of things after action 2>.

To be more specific, the concept that the word "options" refers to here is ... (read more)

As a quick summary (read the paper and sequence if you want more details), they show that for any distribution over reward functions, if there are more "options" available after action 1 than after action 2, then most of the orbit of the distribution (the set of distributions induced by applying any permutation on the MDP, which thus permutes the initial distribution) has optimal policies that do action 1.

That is not what the theorems in the paper show at all (it's not just a matter of details). The relevant theorems require a much stronger and more com... (read more)

In particular, if automating auditing fails, that should mean we now have a concrete style of attack that we can’t build an auditor to discover—which is an extremely useful thing to have, as it provides both a concrete open problem for further work to focus on, as well as a counter-example/impossibility result to the general possibility of being able to make current systems safely auditable.

How does such a scenario (in which "automating auditing fails") look like? The alignment researchers who will work on this will always be able to say: "Our current M... (read more)

I still don't see how this works. The "small constant" here is actually the length of a program that needs to contain a representation of the entire MDP (because the program needs to simulate the MDP for each possible permutation). So it's not a constant; it's an unbounded integer.

Even if we restrict the discussion to a given very-simple-MDP, the program needs to contain way more than 100 bits (just to represent the MDP + the logic that checks whether a given permutation satisfies the relevant condition). So the probability of the POWER-seeking reward func... (read more)

They would change quantitatively, but the upshot would probably be similar. For example, for the Kolmogorov prior, you could prove theorems like "for every reward function that <doesn't do the thing>, there are N reward functions that <do the thing> that each have at most a small constant more complexity" (since you can construct them by taking the original reward function and then apply the relevant permutation / move through the orbit, and that second step has constant K-complexity). Alex sketches out a similar argument in this post.

I don'... (read more)

The incentive of social media companies to invest billions into training competitive RL agents that make their users spend as much time as possible in their platform seem like an obvious reason to be concerned. Especially when such RL agents plausibly already select a substantial fraction of the content that people in developed countries consume.

I think that most of the citations in Superintelligence are in endnotes. In the endnote that follows the first sentence after the formulation of instrumental convergence thesis, there's an entire paragraph about Stephen Omohundro's work on the topic (including citations of Omohundro's "two pioneering papers on this topic").

Bostrom's original instrumental convergence thesis needs to be applied carefully. The danger from power-seeking is not intrinsic to the alignment problem. This danger also depends on the structure of the agent's environment. 

This post uses the phrase "Bostrom's original instrumental convergence thesis". I'm not aware of there being more than one instrumental convergence thesis. In the 2012 paper that is linked here the formulation of the thesis is identical to the one in the book Superintelligence (2014), except that the paper... (read more)

Because you can do "strictly more things" with the vase (including later breaking it) than you can do after you break it, in the sense of proposition 6.9 / lemma D.49. This means that you can permute breaking-vase-is-optimal objectives into breaking-vase-is-suboptimal objectives.

Most of the reward functions are either indifferent about the vase or want to break the vase. The optimal policies of all those reward functions don't "tend to avoid breaking the vase". Those optimal policies don't behave as if they care about the 'strictly more states' that can... (read more)

That one in particular isn't a counterexample as stated, because you can't construct a subgraph isomorphism for it.

Probably not an important point, but I don't see why we can't use the identity isomorphism (over the part of the state space that a1 leads to).

I was referring to the claim being made in Rohin's summary. (I no longer see counter examples after adding the assumption that "a1 and a2 lead to disjoint sets of future options".)

(we’re going to ignore cases where a1 or a2 is a self-loop)

I think that a more general class of things should be ignored here. For example, if a2 is part of a 2-cycle, we get the same problem as when a2 is a self-loop. Namely, we can get that most reward functions have optimal policies that take the action a1 over a2 (when the discount rate is sufficiently close to 1), which contradicts the claim being made.

Suppose we train a model, and at some point during training the inference execution hacks the computer on which the model is trained, and the computer starts doing catastrophic things via its internet connection. Does the generalization-focused approach consider this to be an outer alignment failure?

Optimal policies will tend to avoid breaking the vase, even though some don't. 

Are you saying that the optimal policies of most reward functions will tend to avoid breaking the vase? Why?

This is just making my point - Blackwell optimal policies tend to end up in any state but the last state, even though at any given state they tend to progress. If D1 is {the first four cycles} and D2 is {the last cycle}, then optimal policies tend to end up in D1 instead of D2. Most optimal policies will avoi

The paper supports the claim with:

• Embodied environment in a vase-containing room (section 6.3)

I think this refers to the following passage from the paper:

Consider an embodied navigation task through a room with a vase. Proposition 6.9 suggests that optimal policies tend to avoid breaking the vase, since doing so would strictly decrease available options.

This seems to me like a counter example. For any reward function that does not care about breaking the vase, the optimal policies do not avoid breaking the vase.

Regarding your next bullet point:

• Pac-Man (fig

For my part, I either strongly disagree with nearly every claim you make in this comment, or think you're criticizing the post for claiming something that it doesn't claim (e.g. "proves a core AI alignment argument"; did you read this post's "A note of caution" section / the limitations section and conclusion of the paper v.7?).

I did read the "Note of caution" section in the OP. It says that most of the environments we think about seem to "have the right symmetries", which may be true, but I haven't seen the paper support that claim.

Maybe I just missed ... (read more)

No worries, thanks for the clarification.

[EDIT: the confusion may have resulted from me mentioning the LW username "adamShimi", which I'll now change to the display name on the AF ("Adam Shimi").]

I've ended up spending probably more than 40 hours discussing, thinking and reading this paper (including earlier versions; the paper was first published on December 2019, and the current version is the 7th, published on June 1st, 2021). My impression is very different than Adam Shimi's. The paper introduces many complicated definitions that build on each other, and its theorems say complicated things using those complicated definitions. I don't think the paper explains how its complicated theorems are useful/meaningful.

In particular, I don't think the pap... (read more)

Brainstorming

The following is a naive attempt to write a formal, sufficient condition for a search process to be "not safe with respect to inner alignment".

Definitions:

$D$: a distribution of labeled examples. Abuse of notation: I'll assume that we can deterministically sample a sequence of examples from $D$.

$L$: a deterministic supervised learning algorithm that outputs an ML model. $L$ has access to an infinite sequence of training examples that is provided as input; and it uses a certain "amount of compute" $c$ that is also provided as input. If we operationalize... (read more)

Not from the paper. I just wrote it.

Consider adding to the paper a high-level/simplified description of the environments for which the following sentence from the abstract applies: "We prove that for most prior beliefs one might have about the agent’s reward function [...] one should expect optimal policies to seek power in these environments." (If it's the set of environments in which "the “vast majority” of RSDs are only reachable by following a subset of policies" consider clarifying that in the paper). It's hard (at least for me) to infer that from ... (read more)

see also: "optimal policies tend to take actions which strictly preserve optionality*"

Does this quote refer to a passage from the paper? (I didn't find it.)

It certainly has some kind of effect, but I don't find it obvious that it has the effect you're seeking - there are many simple ways of specifying action-history+state reward functions, which rely on the action-history and not just the rest of the state.

There are very few reward functions that rely on action-history—that can be specified in a simple way—relative to all the reward functions that r... (read more)

The theorems hold for all finite MDPs in which the formal sufficient conditions are satisfied (i.e. the required environmental symmetries exist; see proposition 6.9, theorem 6.13, corollary 6.14). For practical advice, see subsection 6.3 and beginning of section 7.

It seems to me that the (implicit) description in the paper of the set of environments over which "one should expect optimal policies to seek power" ("for most prior beliefs one might have about the agent’s reward function") involves a lot of formalism/math. I was looking for some high-level/s... (read more)

I'll address everything in your comment, but first I want to zoom out and say/ask:

1. In environments that have a state graph that is a tree-with-constant-branching-factor, the POWER—defined over IID-over-states reward distribution—is equal in all states. I argue that environments with very complex physical dynamics are often like that, but not if at some time step the agent can't influence the environment. (I think we agree so far?) I further argue that we can take any MDP environment and "unroll" its state graph into a tree-with-constant-branching-factor (e.

So we can't set the 'arbitrary' part aside - instrumentally convergent means that the incentives apply across most reward functions - not just for one. You're arguing that one reward function might have that incentive. But why would most goals tend to have that incentive?

I was talking about a particular example, with a particular reward function that I had in mind. We seemed to disagree about whether instrumental convergence arguments apply there, and my purpose in that comment was to argue that they do. I'm not trying to define here the set of reward f... (read more)

So if you disagree, please explain why arbitrary reward functions tend to incentivize outputting one string sequence over another?

(Setting aside the "arbitrary" part, because I didn't talk about an arbitrary reward function…)

Consider a string, written by the chatbot, that "hacks" the customer and cause them to invoke a process that quickly takes control over most of the computers on earth that are connected to the internet, then "hacks" most humans on earth by showing them certain content, and so on (to prevent interferences and to seize control ASAP); ... (read more)

is the amount of money paid by the client part of the state?

Yes; let's say the state representation determines the location of every atom in that earth-like environment. The idea is that the environment is very complicated (and contains many actors) and thus the usual arguments for instrumental convergence apply. (If this fails to address any of the above issues let me know.)