Thanks for the clarification, Ajeya! Sorry to make you have to explain that, it was a mistake to imply that ARC’s conception is specifically anchored on Bayes nets–the report was quite clear that isn’t.
Thanks! That's illuminating.
Curated. The authors write:
We believe that there are many promising and unexplored approaches to this problem, and there isn’t yet much reason to believe we are stuck or are faced with an insurmountable obstacle.
If it's true that that this is both a core alignment problem and we're not stuck on it, then that's fantastic. I am not an alignment researcher and don't feel qualified to comment on quite how promising this work seems, but I find the report both accessible and compelling. I recommend it to anyone curious about where some of the alignment leading e... (read more)
In terms of the relationship to MIRI's visible thoughts project, I'd say the main difference is that ARC is attempting to solve ELK in the worst case (where the way the AI understands the world could be arbitrarily alien from and more sophisticated than the way the human understands the world), whereas the visible thoughts project is attempting to encourage a way of developing AI that makes ELK easier to solve (by encouraging the way the AI thinks to resemble the way humans think). My understanding is MIRI is quite skeptical that a solution to worst-case ELK is possible, which is why they're aiming to do something more like "make it more likely that conditions are such that ELK-like problems can be solved in practice."
Curated. A few weeks ago I curated the post this is a response to. I'm excited to see a response that argues the criticized report was misinterpreted/misrepresented. I'd be even more excited to see a response to the response–by the authors involved so far or anyone else. Someone once said (approx) that successful conversation must permit four levels: saying X, critiquing X, critiquing the critique, and critiquing the critique of the critique. We're at 3 out of 4.
Continuing our experiments with the voting system, I've enabled two-axis voting for this thread too.The two dimensions are:
Curated. Not that many people pursue agendas to solve the whole alignment problem and of those even fewer write up their plan clearly. I really appreciate this kind of document and would love to see more like this. Shoutout to the back and forth between John and Scott Garrabrant about John's characterization of MIRI and its relation to John's work.
This post is what first gave me a major update towards "an AI with a simple single architectural pattern scaled up sufficiently could become AGI", in other words, there doesn't necessarily have to be complicated fine-tuned algorithms for different advanced functions–you can get lots of different things from the same simple structure plus optimization. Since then, as far as I can tell, that's what we've been seeing.
Curated. Many times over the years I've seen analogies from biology used to produce estimates about AI timelines. This is the most thoroughly-argued case I've seen against them. While I believe some find the format uncomfortable, I'm personally glad to see Eliezer expressing his beliefs as he feels them, and think this is worth reading for anyone interested in predicting how AI will play out in coming years.For those short on time, I recommend this summary by Grant Demaree.
Curated. Although this isn't a LessWrong post, it seems like a notable result for AGI progress. Also see this highly-upvoted, accessible explanation of why EfficientZero is a big deal. Lastly, I recommend the discussion in the comments here.
Curated. This post introduces a useful frame for thinking about different kinds of alignment work and related differences of opinion.
Speaking as a moderator here, I think it's great that Aryeh is posting about this event. Probably of interest to a few people, so at least worth having as a Personal blogpost.
You're right. Maybe worth the extra words for now.
Curated. This post feels virtuous to me. I'm used to people talking about timelines in terms of X% chance of Y by year Z; or otherwise in terms of a few macro features (GDP doubling every N months, FOOM). This post, even if most of the predictions turn out to be false, is the kind of piece that enables us to start having specific conversations about how we expect things to play out and why. It helps me see what Daniel expects. And it's concrete enough to argue with. For that, bravo.
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Honestly, Pace and Pence should team up to make a super team. Nomitive similarity ought to be a Schelling feature for coordination.