All of Tom Davidson's Comments + Replies

But realistically not all projects will hoard all their ideas. Suppose instead that for the leading project, 10% of their new ideas are discovered in-house, and 90% come from publicly available discoveries accessible to all. Then, to continue the car analogy, it’s as if 90% of the lead car’s acceleration comes from a strong wind that blows on both cars equally. The lead of the first car/project will lengthen slightly when measured by distance/ideas, but shrink dramatically when measured by clock time.

The upshot is that we should return to that table of

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3Daniel Kokotajlo8mo
Maybe. My model was a bit janky; I basically assume DSA-ability comes from clock-time lead but then also assumed that as technology and progress speed up the necessary clock-time lead shrinks. And I guesstimated that it would shrink to 0.3 - 3 years. I bet there's a better way, that pegs DSA-ability to ideas lead... it would be a super cool confirmation of this better model if we could somehow find data confirming that years-needed-for-DSA has fallen in lockstep as ideas-produced-per-year has risen.