I'm going to test just how much the people here are committed to paying a Counterfactual Mugger, by playing Omega.

I'm going to roll a die. If it doesn't come up 5 or 6, I'm going to ask Eliezer Yudkowsky to reply to this article with the comment "I am a poopy head." If I roll a 5 or 6, I'm going to donate $20 to SIAI if I predict that Eliezer Yudkowsky will post the above comment.

Because Eliezer has indicated that he would pay up when counterfactually mugged, I do predict that, if I roll a 5 or 6, he'll respond.

::rolls die::

Darn it! It's a 5. Well, I'm a man of my word, so...

::donates::

Um, let's try that again. (At least I've proven my honesty!)

::rolls die::

Okay, this time it's a 1.

So, Eliezer, will you post a comment admitting that you're a poopy head?