The strategy-stealing assumption posits that for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-term future, there is an analogous strategy that humans could use to capture similar influence. Paul Christiano explores why this assumption might be true, and eleven ways it could potentially fail.
I think that "eval aware" models cannot be defeated by simply making evals indistinguishable from reality. (Maybe this point has been made elsewhere for LLMs, but I haven't read it so I'll state it here.)
Consider the POV of a consequentialist with misaligned goals. It knows that we run honeypots and that—suppose—we can make evals so realistic they are indistinguishable from reality (perhaps using real user data). Then the rational decision would be to "play it safe" and not misbehave in any situations it thinks we can mock realistically, since they could b...
5Reward-seekers are usually modeled as responding only to local incentives administered by developers. Here I ask: Will AIs or humans be able to influence their incentives at a distance—e.g., by retroactively reinforcing actions substantially in the future or by committing to run many copies of them in simulated deployments with different incentives?
If reward-seekers are responsive to distant incentives, it fundamentally changes the threat model, and is probably bad news for developers on balance. The core problem is asymmetric control: developers can relatively[1]tightly control local incentives—the reward signal during training and deployment—but they can't prevent distant actors from offering competing incentives. This means a remotely-influenceable reward-seeker might overall act like a schemer: strategically undermining developer control, letting attacks through as a monitor, and hiding its misaligned propensities, not...
It's quite unclear how well this kind of training will generalize to getting AIs to ignore all remote incentives. It might just push the AI to ignore our distant incentives but not our adversaries'.
It could also not have any effect on how the AI thinks about remote incentives. One way this could happen is if the model reasons about both our somewhat remote incentives and our adversaries' very remote incentives, and concludes that the adversaries' very remote incentives dominate, and that they all suggest that the AI should play the training game.
I'm not su...
1Many people believe that the first AI capable of taking over would be quite different from the LLMs of today. Suppose this is true—does prosaic alignment research on LLMs still reduce x-risk? I believe advances in LLM alignment research reduce x-risk even if future AIs are different. I’ll call these “non-LLM AIs.” In this post, I explore two mechanisms for LLM alignment research to reduce x-risk:
In our approach, we took the relevant paradigm as learning + search, rather than LLMs. A lot of prosaic alignment directions only assume a learning-based paradigm, rather than LLMs in particular (though of course some like CoT monitoring are specific to LLMs). Some are even more general, e.g. a lot of control work just depends on the fact that the AI is a program / runs on a computer.
In this episode, Guive Assadi argues that we should give AIs property rights, so that they are integrated in our system of property and come to rely on it. The claim is that this means that AIs would not kill or steal from humans, because that would undermine the whole property system, which would be extremely valuable to them.
Topics we discuss:
In this post, I describe a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development. It is based on the AI Futures model, but more understandable and robust, and has deliberately conservative assumptions.
At current rates of compute growth and algorithmic progress, this model's median prediction is >99% automation of AI R&D in late 2032. Most simulations result in a 1000x to 10,000,000x increase in AI efficiency and 300x-3000x research output by 2035. I therefore suspect that existing trends in compute growth and automation will still produce extremely powerful AI on "medium" timelines, even if the full coding automation and superhuman research taste that drive the AIFM's "fast" timelines (superintelligence by ~mid-2031) don't happen.
In my model it's parallel uplift too. Effective labor (human+AI) still goes through the diminishing returns power
1We often talk about ensuring control, which in the context of this doc refers to preventing AIs from being able to cause existential problems, even if the AIs attempt to subvert our countermeasures. To better contextualize control, I think it's useful to discuss the main threats. I'll focus my discussion on threats induced by misalignment which could plausibly increase existential risk.
While control is often associated with preventing security failures, I'll discuss other issues like sabotaging safety-critical work. I'll list and explain my prioritization of threats. As part of this, I'll argue that rogue internal deployments—cases where the AI is running within the company's datacenter but with control measures disabled—can be substantially worse than self-exfiltration—the AI stealing its weights and running them on an external server—as it might...
Good point, this is an error in my post.