(Thanks to @Goutham Nalagatla for discussion and for sitting with me and talking about it while I wrote it.)
METR recently released a report estimating that Anthropic is getting an overall 1.7x acceleration in AI capability progress as a result of AI accelerating their work. As many have noted (see e.g. Ajeya’s post), this 1.7x acceleration implies that research is being sped up by much more than 1.7x; Ajeya speculates 10x (which is similar to the ~12x uplift estimated by Anthropic staff). That is, this result implies that researchers are producing about 10 times as many quality-adjusted results as they would without AI progress, or as they were a year or two ago.
Anthropic researchers estimated that Mythos 5 caused 5x uplift, and we have access to Opus 5.5,...
TLDR: I give informal conceptual desiderata for the theory of agents we need to solve ASI alignment, and show a few examples of how existing theories fall short of these desiderata.
The word "agent" is often used in the AI safety discourse and in other research communities, but the intended meaning and scope of this concept varies substantially. For the purpose of this sequence, I informally define an agent to be a system with inputs ("observations") and outputs ("actions") that is effective at steering its environment in the direction of particular preferences, for a large variety of different environments. To do so, it arguably has to create a sophisticated model of the environment [1] , and use...
The Solomonoff prior is a mathematical formalization of Occam's razor. It's intended to provide a way to assign probabilities to observations based on their simplicity. However, the simplest programs that predict observations well might be universes containing intelligent agents trying to influence the predictions. This makes the Solomonoff prior "malign" - its predictions are influenced by the preferences of simulated beings.
Vide my old "breakthroughs and bottlenecks" take on how RSI would probably look, FWIW. The current modelers look to me like they're recapitulating Eliezer-1996, though this doesn't make them wrong. It still has the feel to me of people being shocked to run into a phenomenon that they'd spent a couple of decades denying, and then immediately proceeding to the takes I had in the first year after imagining that phenomenon in principle.