(Thanks to Ajeya Cotra, Nick Beckstead, and Jared Kaplan for helpful comments on a draft of this post.)
I really don’t want my AI to strategically deceive me and resist my attempts to correct its behavior. Let’s call an AI that does so egregiously misaligned (for the purpose of this post).
Most possible ML techniques for avoiding egregious misalignment depend on detailed facts about the space of possible models: what kind of thing do neural networks learn? how do they generalize? how do they change as we scale them up?
But I feel like we should be possible to avoid egregious misalignment regardless of how the empirical facts shake out--it should be possible to get a model we build to do at least roughly what we want. So I’m interested in trying...
On one side of this debate is Yudkowsky & Soares, who think that (if AI progress continues) we’re on a direct path to egregiously-misaligned, scheming, out-of-control, rogue superintelligence (ASI), not even slightly nice, in the absence of yet-to-be-invented breakthrough technical alignment ideas.
On the other side of this debate is almost everyone who works on or studies LLMs. Some of them are very concerned about egregious scheming, others much less so, and as a group they’re equally or more concerned about lots of other potential AI problems—AI-assisted bioterrorism, AI-assisted dictatorships, etc. And if they’re concerned about egregious misalignment and scheming, they’ll often say that it would come about through being in too much of a rush, or careless programmers, or bad actors, etc., as opposed to the simpler...
There are missing insights which cause humans to still do things LLMs can't. As those are found, LLMs might jump way ahead very abruptly as it is way superhuman in many ways already and if a system matched humans in all ways while keeping these skills it would take over pretty easily I suspect.
Oh, I wasn’t talking about changing the LLM learning algorithm, training approach, etc. Of course if you change any of those things, then you can get different results for both capabilities and alignment. I meant, like, I don’t expect LLMs as trained today to pass some threshold beyond which they will logically reason themselves into being egregiously misaligned.
A few days ago I tried AI again, after several months of not using it at all. We're dealing with some housing-related matters, and I asked Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini for advice what to do in a certain situation. (I won't give the details here, because they're personal and not that important for my point.) All three models independently gave the same advice, which sounded really convincing to me. But we have some friends with experience in such matters, who said that following this advice would be catastrophic and we should do the opposite. Eventually we fo...
It seems to me that, for every loss function that we use to train LLMs, we get a very distinct flavor of LLM misalignment. Here’s the summary table, and then we’ll go through the rows separately.
Training stage | Loss function | Flavor of misalignment[1] | Famous examples |
|---|---|---|---|
Pretraining & SFT | Imitative learning (next-token prediction) | “Seven deadly sins” misalignment | |
RLHF & DPO | Human approval | “Glazing” misalignment | |
RLVR | Automatic verifier | “Literal genie” misalignment | |
RLAIF | Approval from another LLM | “Trickster” misalignment |
Warning: I’m not an LLM power-user myself, but rather relying on reports I’ve read. Also, I don’t consider LLM alignment to be my primary area of expertise. I’m open to feedback!
Training stage | Loss function | Misaligned behavior |
|---|---|---|
Pretraining, SFT | Imitative learning (next-token prediction) | Any and all of the vices of humanity |
In imitative learning, the LLM tries to predict...
I mean, sure you could lump them together, but I think the strategies for getting human approval do not exactly match the strategies for getting LLM approval, even if there’s some overlap.
By the way, in another comment I also suggested that we might also draw a distinction between alignment-targeted approval versus capabilities-targeted approval, regardless of whether the approval is from an human or an AI. (Again, there’s overlap, and it’s a blurry line separating them.)
My current median for AIs fully automating AI R&D is maybe Jan 2031 or perhaps a touch earlier. My views have updated towards towards shorter timelines over 2026. My median for AI R&D parity is around early/mid 2030 (in part due to an update towards thinking we hit parity significantly before "full" automation). By full automation, I mean removing humans from AI R&D would slow things down by <10%.
I discuss something more like my 30th/35th percentile here (roughly my modal scenario).
Vanessa and diffractor introduce a new approach to epistemology / decision theory / reinforcement learning theory called Infra-Bayesianism, which aims to solve issues with prior misspecification and non-realizability that plague traditional Bayesianism.
I wrote about translation in connection with IDA in this 2016 comment thread, although the form of the problem I wrote down is different enough from Paul's 2020 writeup that I'm not sure how much connection there is between the two.