Today's post, The Weak Inside View was originally published on 18 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

On cases where the causal factors creating a circumstance are changing, the outside view may be misleading. In that case, the best you can do may just be to take the inside view, but not try to assign predictions that were too precise.

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This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Failure By Affective Analogy, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.