[ Question ]

Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?

by SoerenMind1 min read21st Apr 20191 comment


AI Takeoff

14 months ago, Paul Christiano and AI Impacts both published forceful and well-received take-downs of many arguments for fast (discontinuous) takeoff. I haven’t seen any rebuttals that are written by established researchers, longer than comments, or otherwise convincing. The longer there is no response, the less weight I put on the outside view that proponents of fast takeoff may be right.

Where are the rebuttals? Did I miss them? Is the debate decided? Did nobody have time or motivation to write something? Is the topic too hard to explain?

Why rebuttals would be useful:

-Give the community a sense of the extent of expert disagreement to form outside views.

-Prioritization in AI policy, and to a lesser extent safety, depends on the likelihood of discontinuous progress. We may have more leverage in such cases, but this could be overwhelmed if the probability is low.

-Motivate more people to work on MIRI’s research which seems more important to solve early if there is fast takeoff.

New Answer
Ask Related Question
New Comment
1 comments, sorted by Highlighting new comments since Today at 5:17 PM

Just wanna say, I intend to get around to writing rebuttals someday. I definitely have several counterarguments in mind; the forceful takedowns you mention weren't very convincing to me, though they did make me update away from fast takeoff.