MSRayne's Shortform

Note to self (and anyone else who thinks this is a good idea): privately write down predictions upon publishing every post and possibly also every comment. Specifically, predict:

• number of upvotes the post will have after a week
• number of comments it will have after a week
• average valence of comments (proportion which agree with or are otherwise in favor of the post)
• probability that some comment will cause me to change my mind about what I wrote

Then every day I should look back at everything I posted a week before and use it to calibrate my predictions. This should gradually improve my ability to determine if what I want to post is worth saying and how it will be received. That will be particularly useful if I can actually manage to trust this data during periods of low mood and warped cognition... but my current credence that I will be able to do that with significant regularity is about 40%.