This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.

Here is the web interactive I built to let you evaluate your solution; below is an explanation of the rules used to generate the dataset. You’ll probably want to test your answer before reading any further.

Ruleset

(Note: to make writing this easier, I’m using standard D&D dice notation, in which “3+4d8” means “roll four eight-sided dice, sum the results, then add three”.)

Enemies

Sharks

Sharks are 1/6 of encounters.

They attack in groups of 2+1d4, each of which does 1d10 points of damage.

Demon Whales

Demon Whales are 1/14 of encounters. (If that fraction seems high, you’re failing to account for all the sunk ships that couldn’t report encountering them.)

An attack from a Demon Whale does 17d12 points of damage.

A Demon Whale encounter has a ~78% fatality rate

Crabmonsters

Crabmonsters are 1/14 of encounters.

A Crabmonster repeatedly rolls 1d80 as it tears through the ship, adding a point of damage with each roll, until it rolls a 1 (that is, encounters someone or something that stops it).

~8% of Crabmonster encounters do >200% damage; a Crabmonster encounter has a ~28% fatality rate

Pirates

Though the Navy’s records don’t bother to distinguish, Pirates come in two categories: Brigands (local criminals who had the poor fortune to cross paths with Naval supply ships while flying the black flag, and/or to mistake them for civilian cargo ships) and Privateers (agents of an enemy government, harassing your Navy’s fleet using hit-and-run tactics). Brigands are 1/6 of random encounters during your voyages, Privateers 1/21.

A fight with Brigands does 4d8 points of damage; a fight with Privateers does 6d12.

Merpeople

Surface-dwellers are unaware of the intricacies of underwater society, and record both Atlantean Merfolk (1/14 of encounters) and Alexandrian Merfolk (2/21 of encounters) as “Merpeople”. Fortunately, the two city-states are close enough politically that befriending one will cause them both to allow you free passage.

Atlanteans do 20+3d20 damage; Alexandrians do 1d8*1d8*1d8+1d20 damage.

~14% of Alexandrian attacks do >200% damage; an Alexandrian attack has a ~37% fatality rate

Kraken

Kraken are 2/21 of encounters.

They do 12d8 points of damage.

Nessie

Nessie is 1/21 of encounters.

She does 40+10d8 points of damage.

...