Major spoilers for planecrash (Book 2) and for Eliezer's Masculine Mongoose #3.

How Bayesians Lie; How to Lie to Bayesians

Pyrofessor groaned out loud. “This is why I can’t stand his kind of cognitive augment,” she said. "He can’t just refuse to admit his identity like a normal fucking meta. No, the Goose has to make a big deal out of trying to act exactly like a real human in his shoes. Not because he’s trying to hide who he is. He knows we all know. He’s just being a fucking priss about his interpretation of the mask code. He thinks that if you knowingly behave according to a likelihood function that you can probabilistically distinguish from the likelihood function of a normal, you might as well hang a sign on your forehead. So he acts all ostentatiously precise about his interpretation of Bruce Kent, in order to sniff about how the rest of us are getting it wrong. And he does that knowing all you admiring numbskulls are completely oblivious to how he’s behaving on the augment-to-augment level. God, I hate Bayesians, they’re often right in principle but do they have to be such fucking snobs about it -“
--Eliezer, Masculine Mongoose #3

Keltham is constantly tracking the Conspiracy world in his mind. That's part of this. He's living in both worlds simultaneously and distinctly and unhesitatingly. There's no pause in him about whether or not the Conspiracy is real, for purposes of accusing Carissa of being in on it within the Conspiracy world. Keltham steps all the way mentally into the world where the Conspiracy is just a thing and Carissa is just part of it, and then in that world when Sevar suddenly vanished away 'to the bathroom' obviously she was up to something in response to his own lecture and obviously the other students' questions were meant as a distraction.
Asmodia sees the game now, has seen the game, even without the enhancement spells she remembers.
Cheliax can't rely on what anything 'looks like', they can't ask if it's a 'giveaway' or if it could 'just as reasonably be something else'. Keltham isn't going to wonder each time whether or not the Conspiracy is real and mentally back down from labeling Carissa's departure as suspicious. Cheliax has to consider what everything will look like to Keltham while he's mentally inhabiting the world where the Consp

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