Last week: Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo

Recently: Covid-19: New York’s Antibody Tests 2, On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”

Background Assumptions: On R0, Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously, On New York’s Antibody Tests, My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data

Spreadsheet where I do work: Access it here as read only

Deaths By Week in the 5 Big Regions:

	WEST	MIDWEST	SOUTH	NE ex-NY	NY
Mar 26-Apr 1	164	450	182	143	364
Mar 19-Mar 25	424	1894	667	856	1988
Apr 2-8	764	3873	1331	2248	4694
Apr 9-15	890	4853	1596	3605	5318
Apr 16-22	1033	5189	1727	5165	3716
Apr 23-29	1128	5234	1694	4742	2666
Apr 30-May 6	988	5126	1740	4921	1862

Positive Tests By Week By Region:

	WEST	MIDWEST	SOUTH	NE ex-NY	NY
Mar 26-Apr 1	7176	7812	9927	11923	33106
Mar 19-Mar 25	16665	22121	28412	37339	55123
Apr 2-8	19925	31460	38989	60433	67556
Apr 9-15	16291	29267	35570	62293	64463
Apr 16-22	20065	34130	33932	65080	43437
Apr 23-29	21873	42343	34683	62355	42475
Apr 30-May 6	23424	49205	37595	52232	24287

Tests each week (New York’s 5/6 negative rate assumed to be same as 5/5):

	USA Pos%	USA ex-NY Pos %	NY Pos %	USA Tests	USA ex-NY Tests	NY Tests
Mar 26-Apr 1	16.2%	10.7%	32.0%	347577	258695	88882
Mar 19-Mar 25	20.2%	15.4%	45.1%	728474	611073	117401
Apr 2-8	19.8%	15.8%	45.5%	1067220	922947	144273
Apr 9-15	20.1%	16.5%	40.1%	1039790	878931	160859
Apr 16-22	15.7%	13.8%	30.2%	1253535	1109565	143970
Apr 23-29	13.7%	12.6%	21.0%	1480101	1277602	202499
Apr 30-May 6	10.6%	10.3%	13.3%	1733601	1550320	183281

Total Positive Tests:

	USA Positives	USA Ex-NY Pos
Mar 26-Apr 1	56198	27769
Mar 19-Mar 25	146888	93987
Apr 2-8	211095	145491
Apr 9-15	209067	144604
Apr 16-22	197111	153674
Apr 23-29	202934	160459
Apr 30-May 6	184614	160327

New York: Rapidly Making It Here

The news keeps getting better, with each day seeming to be a more rapid decline in positive test rates and the implied R0. Last week I had R0 ~ 0.78, and now I have more like R0 ~ 0.74.

I believe that this reflects a real drop in the effective R0 over time. Some of that is shifts in behavior. Some of that is additional herd immunity, especially in the places it is most valuable. Some of that is selection, as the infection shifts to where it can better be contained. Some of that is that we have more resourc...