China

Xi Jinping is the current Chinese President. His median expected term is until 2030[1].

It is extremely unlikely that Taiwan will be invaded by 2025, but plausible,  by 2030 or later[2]. If they try and invade before 2035, it's a coin toss if they will succeed[3] and likewise whether Japan will respond militarily[4].

It is plausible, but unlikely that there is a war between the US and China before 2035 with over 1,000 casualties[5].casualties.

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Chinese Leadership

Xi Jinping is the current Chinese President. His median expected term is until 2030[1].

China and Taiwan

Taiwan is a large producer of semi-conductors and useful strategically for denying Chinese control of the Pacific. It considers itself a sovereign nation, though is not recognised as such because China cuts off any country that acknowledges this. China considers Taiwan to be a part of China. 

It is extremely unlikely that Taiwan will be invaded by 2025, but plausible,  by 2030 or later[2]. If they try and invade before 2035, it's a coin toss if they will succeed[3] and likewise whether Japan will respond militarily[4].

It is plausible, but unlikely that there is a war between the US and China before 2035 with over 1,000 casualties[5].

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Applied to AI Safety in China: Part 2 by Lao Mein 9mo ago