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We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...
I originally wrote this just for myself but thought I'd share it in case others find it useful. Sharing rough notes in the spirit of not letting perfect be the enemy of the good. This was written in early May 2025. In this post I collect evidence and forecasts regarding...
How much should we expect AI progress to speed up after fully automating AI R&D? This post presents an intuition pump for reasoning about the level of acceleration by talking about different hypothetical companies with different labor forces, amounts of serial time, and compute. Essentially, if you'd expect an AI...
Authors: Eli Lifland,[1] Nikola Jurkovic,[2] FutureSearch[3] This is supporting research for AI 2027. We'll be cross-posting these over the next week or so. Assumes no large-scale catastrophes happen (e.g., a solar flare, a pandemic, nuclear war), no government or self-imposed slowdown, and no significant supply chain disruptions. All forecasts give...
In 2021 I wrote what became my most popular blog post: What 2026 Looks Like. I intended to keep writing predictions all the way to AGI and beyond, but chickened out and just published up till 2026. Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team...
Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors alone. Overview In the vein of What 2026 Looks Like and AI Timelines discussion, we recently hosted a scenario forecasting...
This work has been done in the context of SaferAI’s work on risk assessment. Equal contribution by Eli and Joel. I'm sharing this writeup in the form of a Google Doc and reproducing the summary below. Disclaimer: this writeup is context for upcoming experiments, not complete work. As such it...