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We want to get this post out quickly given the urgency of the topic. It’s possible that there are some errors in the modeling, but we think it’s very unlikely that they undermine the high level conclusions. We would love to be corrected on any mistakes we made. METR recently...
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done! It’s called AI 2040: Plan A. It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what...
We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...
I originally wrote this just for myself but thought I'd share it in case others find it useful. Sharing rough notes in the spirit of not letting perfect be the enemy of the good. This was written in early May 2025. In this post I collect evidence and forecasts regarding...
How much should we expect AI progress to speed up after fully automating AI R&D? This post presents an intuition pump for reasoning about the level of acceleration by talking about different hypothetical companies with different labor forces, amounts of serial time, and compute. Essentially, if you'd expect an AI...
Authors: Eli Lifland,[1] Nikola Jurkovic,[2] FutureSearch[3] This is supporting research for AI 2027. We'll be cross-posting these over the next week or so. Assumes no large-scale catastrophes happen (e.g., a solar flare, a pandemic, nuclear war), no government or self-imposed slowdown, and no significant supply chain disruptions. All forecasts give...
In 2021 I wrote what became my most popular blog post: What 2026 Looks Like. I intended to keep writing predictions all the way to AGI and beyond, but chickened out and just published up till 2026. Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team...