TLDR: We've put together a website to track recent releases of superscale models, and comment on the immediate and near-term safety risks they may pose. The website is little more than a view of an Airtable spreadsheet at the moment, but we'd greatly appreciate any feedback you might have on the content. Check it out at aitracker.org.

Longer version:

In the past few months, several successful replications of GPT-3 have been publicly announced. We've also seen the first serious attempts at scaling significantly beyond it, along with indications that large investments are being made in commercial infrastructure that's intended to simplify training the next generation of such models.

Today's race to scale is qualitatively different from previous AI eras in a couple of major ways. First, it's driven by an unprecedentedly tight feedback loop between incremental investment in AI infrastructure, and expected profitability [1]. Second, it's inflected by nationalism: there have been public statements to the effect that a given model will help the developer's home nation maintain its "AI sovereignty" — a concept that would have been alien just a few short years ago.

The replication and proliferation of these models likely poses major risks. These risks are uniquely hard to forecast, not only because many capabilities of current models are novel and might be used to do damage in imaginative ways, but also because the capabilities of future models can't be reliably predicted [2].

AI Tracker

The first step to assessing and addressing these risks is to get visibility into the trends they arise from. In an effort to do that, we've created AI Tracker: a website to catalog recent releases of superscale AI models, and other models that may have implications for public safety around the world.

You can visit AI Tracker at aitracker.org.

Each model in AI Tracker is labeled with several key features: its input and output modalities; its parameter count and total compute cost (where available); its training dataset; its known current and extrapolated future capabilities; and a brief description and industry context, among others. The idea behind the tracker is to highlight these models in the context of the plausible public safety risks they pose, and place them in their proper context as instances of a scaling trend.

(There's also a FAQ at the bottom of the page, if you'd like to know a b...

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