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Update February 21st: After the initial publication of this article (January 3rd) we received a lot of feedback and several people pointed out that propositions 1 and 2 were incorrect as stated. That was unfortunate as it distracted from the broader arguments in the article and I (Jan K) take...

This podcast has gotten a lot of traction, so we're posting a full transcript of it, lightly edited with ads removed, for those who prefer reading over audio. Intro Eliezer Yudkowsky: [clip] I think that we are hearing the last winds start to blow, the fabric of reality start to...

If one believes that unaligned AGI is a significant problem (>10% chance of leading to catastrophe), speeding up public progress towards AGI is obviously bad. Though it is obviously bad, there may be circumstances which require it. However, accelerating AGI should require a much higher bar of evidence and much...

We often prefer reading over listening to audio content, and have been testing transcribing podcasts using our new tool at Conjecture, Verbalize, with some light editing and formatting. We're posting highlights and transcripts of podcasts in case others share our preferences, and because there is a lot of important alignment-relevant...

Meta: Over the past few months, we've held a seminar series on the Simulators theory by janus. As the theory is actively under development, the purpose of the series is to discover central structures and open problems. Our aim with this sequence is to share some of our discussions with...

This post is part of the work done at Conjecture. Epistemic Status: Palimpsest Better epistemology should make you stronger. Which is why at Conjecture's' epistemology team we are so adamant on improving our models of knowledge-production: this feels like the key to improving alignment research across the board, given the...

This work was done while at Conjecture. This post has been written for the first Refine blog post day, at the end of the week of readings, discussions, and exercises about epistemology for doing good conceptual research. Thanks for comments by Linda Linsefors, Paul Bricman, and Adam Shimi. Introduction The...