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Prospect Theory

Edited by steven0461, Vladimir_Nesov, Grognor, PeerInfinity, et al. last updated 25th Sep 2020

Prospect Theory is an attempt by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman to construct a decision theory that describes the actual behavior of humans, rather than idealized rational decision-making.

An agent, in prospect theory:

  • is loss-averse, and so weighs losses (relative to some reference point) more strongly than gains
  • is risk-averse with respect to gains, but risk-seeking with respect to losses
  • uses probability weighting: small probabilities count more and larger probabilities count less than they would under expected utility.

Blog posts

  • Shane Legg on prospect theory and computational finance
  • Prospect Theory: A Framework for Understanding Cognitive Biases

External links

  • Prospect theory at Psychology Wiki

See also

  • Heuristics and biases
  • Loss aversion
  • Decision theory
  • Expected utility
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