I was part of a group that ran a PhilPapers-style survey and metasurvey targeting NLP researchers who publish at venues like ACL. Results are here (Tweet-thread version). It didn't target AGI timelines, but had some other questions that could be of interest to people here:
This was really interesting, thanks for running and sharing! Overall this was a positive update for me.
Results are here
I think this just links to PhilPapers not your survey results?
Thanks! Fixed link.
Super interesting, thanks!If you were running it again, you might want to think about standardizing the wording of the questions - it varies from 'will / is' to 'is likely' to 'plausible' and this can make it hard to compare between questions. Plausible in particular is quite a fuzzy word, for some it might mean 1% or more, for others it might just mean it's not completely impossible / if a movie had that storyline, they'd be okay with it.
Fair. For better or worse, a lot of this variation came from piloting—we got a lot of nudges from pilot participants to move toward framings that were perceived as controversial or up for debate.