This is a repository for miscellaneous short things I want to post. Other people are welcome to make top-level comments here if they want. (E.g., questions for me you'd rather discuss publicly than via PM; links you think will be interesting to people in this comment section but not to LW as a whole; etc.)
Collecting all of the quantitative AI predictions I know of MIRI leadership making on Arbital (let me know if I missed any):
Some caveats:
Inconsistencies are flags 'something is wrong here', but ass numbers are vague and unreliable enough that they're to be expected to some degree. Similarly, ass numbers are often unstable hour-to-hour and day-to-day.
On my model, the point of ass numbers isn't to demand perfection of your gut (e.g., of the sort that would be needed to avoid multiple-stage fallacies when trying to conditionalize a lot), but to:
It may still be a terrible idea to spend too much time generating ass numbers, since "real numbers" are not the native format human brains compute probability with, and spending a lot of time working in a non-native format may skew your reasoning.
(Maybe there's some individual variation here?)
But they're at least a good tool to use sometimes, for the sake of crisper communication, calibration practice (so you can generate non-awful future probabilities when you need to), etc.