Today was Refine's third blogpost day. I find it hard to write blogposts. The voice of the inner critic is too loud. The voice of Adam Shimi too is powerful. I'm caught between a rock and a hard place.

so I wrote some shortforms:

Dutch Book Fundamentalism I: *the bets we are willing to offer and take don't just constrain our beliefs - they are our beliefs*

Two shortforms on Imprecise Probability (related to InfraBayesianism):

Imprecise Probability I: the Bid-Ask Spread measures Adversariality *I enumerate some examples where the bid-ask spread is a rational measure of adversarial action. Bid-ask spread is a fundamental notion of rational belief and action, not just an accidental feature of trading. *

Concept splintering in Imprecise Probability: Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty. *when we move from standard probability theory to imprecise probability theory concepts in the old probability theory 'splinter' into distinct 'aleatoric' and 'epistemic' concepts in the new imprecise probability theory*

Speculations on the correct notion of Information Flow *Some speculations on the correct definition of Information Flow. A major obstacle are collections of random variables XORed variables and higher-order dependencies. Shannon information theory does not deal well with these. I speculate on how and whether factored sets, cyclic causality and information cohomology might help. *