brendanhalstead

For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done! It’s called AI 2040: Plan A. It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what...

We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...