Gabriel Alfour

On Carcinogenic Complexity, Software Senescence and Cognitive Provenance: Our roadmap for 2025 and beyond It is mandatory to start any essay on AI in the post-ChatGPT era with the disclaimer that AI brings huge potential, and great risks. Unfortunately, on the path we are currently on, we will not realize...

We (Connor Leahy, Gabriel Alfour, Chris Scammell, Andrea Miotti, Adam Shimi) have just published The Compendium, which brings together in a single place the most important arguments that drive our models of the AGI race, and what we need to do to avoid catastrophe. We felt that something like this...

Most disagreement about AI Safety strategy and regulation stems from our inability to forecast how dangerous future systems will be. This inability means that even the best minds are operating on a vibe when discussing AI, AGI, SuperIntelligence, Godlike-AI and similar endgame scenarios. The trouble is that vibes are hard...

(Co-written by Connor Leahy and Gabe) We have talked to a whole bunch of people about pauses and moratoriums. Members of the AI safety community, investors, business peers, politicians, and more. Too many claimed to pursue the following approach: 1. It would be great if AGI progress stopped, but that...

This is part of the work done at Conjecture. This post has been reviewed before publication as per our infohazard policy. We thank our external reviewers for their comments and feedback. This post serves as a signpost for Conjecture’s new primary safety proposal and research direction, which we call Cognitive...

The following are the summary and transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano (ARC) and Gabriel Alfour, hereafter GA (Conjecture), which took place on December 11, 2022 on Slack. It was held as part of a series of discussions between Conjecture and people from other organizations in the AGI and...

From our point of view, we are now in the end-game for AGI, and we (humans) are losing. When we share this with other people, they reliably get surprised. That’s why we believe it is worth writing down our beliefs on this. 1. AGI is happening soon. Significant probability of...