The authors don't seem to address the possibility that we are seeing a temporary acceleration of AI, because the labs are ramping methods that are much more expensive to scale, but they are doing so from very low baselines.
Here some evidence for you.
1- The acceleration in ECI precedes coding helping researchers in at least 18 months. Based on my anecdotes, I doubt any researcher at an AI lab is being accelerated by AI since they got access to models like 4.5 Sonnet and GPT-5-Codex. Epoch says: "AI capabilities accelerated in 2024! According to our Epoch Capabilities Index, frontier model improvement nearly doubled, from... (read 757 more words →)
Thank you for the effort. Big fan of the authors.
The authors don't seem to address the possibility that we are seeing a temporary acceleration of AI, because the labs are ramping methods that are much more expensive to scale, but they are doing so from very low baselines.
Here some evidence for you.
1- The acceleration in ECI precedes coding helping researchers in at least 18 months. Based on my anecdotes, I doubt any researcher at an AI lab is being accelerated by AI since they got access to models like 4.5 Sonnet and GPT-5-Codex. Epoch says: "AI capabilities accelerated in 2024! According to our Epoch Capabilities Index, frontier model improvement nearly doubled, from... (read 757 more words →)