As a result, my timelines have also concentrated more around a somewhat narrower band of years. Previously, my probability increased from 10% to 60% over the course of the ~32 years from ~2032 and ~2064; now this happens over the ~24 years between ~2026 and ~2050.
10% probability by 2026 (!!)
As someone with limited knowledge of AI or alignment, I found this post accessible. There were times when I thought I knew vaguely what Nate meant but would not be able to explain it so I'm recording my confusions here to come back to when I've read up more. (If anyone wants to answer any of these r/NoStupidQuestions questions, that would be very helpful too).