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Yeah, the precise ability I'm trying to point to here is tricky. Almost any human (barring certain forms of senility, severe disability, etc) can do some version of what I'm talking about. But as in the restaurant example, not every human could succeed at every possible example.

I was trying to better describe the abilities that I thought GPT-4 was lacking, using very simple examples. And it started looking way too much like a benchmark suite that people could target.

Suffice to say, I don't think GPT-4 is an AGI. But I strongly suspect we're only a couple of breakthroughs away. And if anyone builds an AGI, I am not optimistic we will remain in control of our futures.

Yes, this is almost exactly it. I don't expect frontier LLMs to carry out a complicated, multi-step process and recover from obstacles.

I think of this as the "squirrel bird feeder test". Squirrels are ingenious and persistent problem solvers, capable of overcoming chains of complex obstacles. LLMs really can't do this (though Devin is getting closer, if demos are to be believed).

Here's a simple test: Ask an AI to open and manage a local pizza restaurant, buying kitchen equipment, dealing with contractors, selecting recipes, hiring human employees to serve or clean, registering the business, handling inspections, paying taxes, etc. None of these are expert-level skills. But frontier models are missing several key abilities. So I do not consider them AGI.

However, I agree that LLMs already have superhuman language skills in many areas. They have many, many parts of what's needed to complete challenges like the above. (On principle, I won't try to list what I think they're missing.)

I fear the period between "actual AGI and weak ASI" will be extremely short. And I don't actually believe there is any long-term way to control ASI.

I fear that most futures lead to a partially-aligned super-human intelligence with its own goals. And any actual control we have will be transitory.