Ricardo Meneghin


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Are we in an AI overhang?

One thing that's bothering me is... Google/DeepMind aren't stupid. The transformer model was invented at Google. What has stopped them from having *already* trained such large models privately? GPT-3 isn't that large an evidence for the effectiveness of scaling transformer models; GPT-2 was already a shock and caused huge public commotion. And in fact, if you were close to building an AGI, it would make sense for you not to announce this to the world, specially as open research that anyone could copy/reproduce, for obvious safety and economic reasons.

Maybe there are technical issues keeping us from doing large jumps in scale (i.e. , we only learn how to train a 1 trillion parameter model after we've trained a 100 billion one)?