Researcher at Ought
My quick take:
Rohin has created his posterior distribution! Key differences from his prior are at the bounds:
Overall, Rohin’s posterior is a bit more optimistic than his prior and more uncertain.
Ethan Perez’s snapshot wins the prize for the most accurate prediction of Rohin's posterior. Ethan kept a similar distribution shape while decreasing the probability >2100 less than the other submissions.
The prize for a comment that updated Rohin’s thinking goes to Jacob Pfau! This was determined by a draw with comments weighted proportionally to how much they updated Rohin’s thinking.
Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations to the winners! Feel free to continue making comments and distributions, and sharing any feedback you have on this competition.
Thanks for this post, Paul!
NOTE: Response to this post has been even greater than we expected. We received more applications for experiment participant than we currently have the capacity to manage so we are temporarily taking the posting down. If you've applied and don't hear from us for a while, please excuse the delay! Thanks everyone who has expressed interest - we're hoping to get back to you and work with you soon.
What I'd do differently now: