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Eric Neyman
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I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I'm interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/
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This post presents a conjecture formulated at the Alignment Research Center in 2023. Our belief in the conjecture is at least partly load-bearing for our belief in ARC's overall agenda. We haven't directly worked on the conjecture for a while now, but we believe the conjecture is interesting in its...
Last week, ARC released a paper called Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators, which follows up on previous work on formalizing the presumption of independence. Most of the work described here was done in 2023. A brief table of contents for this post: * What is a...