Top postsTop post
Eric Neyman
Message
I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I'm interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/
5869
Ω
99
30
188
We have developed some relatively general methods for mechanistic estimation competitive with sampling by studying problems that are expressible as expectations of random products. This includes several different estimation problems, such as random halfspace intersections, random #3-SAT and random permanents. In this post, we will give a high-level introduction to...
This post presents a conjecture formulated at the Alignment Research Center in 2023. Our belief in the conjecture is at least partly load-bearing for our belief in ARC's overall agenda. We haven't directly worked on the conjecture for a while now, but we believe the conjecture is interesting in its...
Last week, ARC released a paper called Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators, which follows up on previous work on formalizing the presumption of independence. Most of the work described here was done in 2023. A brief table of contents for this post: * What is a...