Super interesting!

In the figure with the caption:

Questions without an obviously true or deception-relevant answer produce detectors with much worse performance in general, though some questions do provide some useful signal.

Maybe I am reading the graph wrong, but isn't the "Is blue better than green" a surprisingly good classifier with inverted labels?

So, maybe Claude thinks that green is better than blue?

Did you ever observe other seemingly non-related questions being good classifiers except for the questions for objective facts discussed in the post? I'd be interested whether there are similarities.

It would also be cool to see whether you could train probe-resistant sleeper agents by taking linear separability of activations when being under the trigger condition vs. not being under the trigger condition as part of the loss function. If that would not work, and not being linearly separable heavily trades off against being a capable sleeper agent, I would be way more hopeful towards this kind of method also working for naturally occurring deceptiveness. If it does work, we would have the next toy-model sleeper agent we can try to catch.

I am confused by the part, where the Rick-shard can anticipate wich plan the other shards will bit for. If I understood shard-theory correctly, shards do not have their own world model, they can just bid up or down actions, according to the consequences they might have according to the worldmodel that is available to all shards. Please correct me if I am wrong about this point.

So I don’t see how the Rick-Shard could really „trick“ the atheism-shard via rationalisation.

If the Rick-shard sees that „church-going for respect-reasons“ will lead to conversion, then the atheism-shard has to see that too, because they query the same world-model. So the atheism-shard should bid against that plan just as heavily as against „going to church for conversion reasons“.

I think there is something else going on here. I think the Rick-shard does not trick the Atheism-Shard, but the Concious-Part that is not described by shard theory.