That’s a very helpful comment, thanks!
Yeah, Vision 1 versus Vision 2 are two caricatures, and as such, they differ along a bunch of axes at once. And I think you're emphasizing on different axes than the ones that seem most salient to me. (Which is fine!)
In particular, maybe I should have focused more on the part where I wrote: “In that case, an important conceptual distinction (as compared to Vision 1) is related to AI goals: In Vision 1, there’s a pretty straightforward answer of what the AI is supposed to be trying to do… By contrast, in Vision 2, it’s head-scratching to even say what the AI is supposed to be doing…”
Along this axis-of-variation:
Why am I emphasizing this axis in particular?
For one thing, I think this axis has practical importance for current research; on the narrow value learning vs ambitious value learning dichotomy, “narrow” is enough to execute Vision 1, but you need “ambitious” for Vision 2.
For example, if we move from “training by human approval” to “training by human approval after the human has had extensive time to reflect, with weak-AI brainstorming help”, then that’s a step from Vision 1 towards Vision 2 (i.e. a step from narrow value learning towards ambitious value learning). But my guess is that it’s a pretty small step towards Vision 2. I don’t think it gets us all the way to the AI I mentioned above, the one that will proactively deconvert a religious fundamentalist supervisor who currently has no interest whatsoever in questioning his faith.
For another thing, I think this axis is important for strategy and scenario-planning. For example, if we do Vision 2 really well, it changes the story in regards to “solution to global wisdom and coordination” mentioned in Section 3.2 of my “what does it take” post.
In other words, I think there are a lot of people (maybe including me) who are wrong about important things, and also not very scout-mindset about those things, such that “AI helpers” wouldn’t particularly help, because the person is not asking the AI for its opinion, and would ignore the opinion anyway, or even delete that AI in favor of a more sycophantic one. This is a societal problem, and always has been. One possible view of that problem is: “well, that’s fine, we’ve always muddled through”. But if you think there are upcoming VWH-type stuff where we won’t muddle through (as I tentatively do in regards to ruthlessly-power-seeking AGI), then maybe the only option is a (possibly aggressive) shift in the balance of power towards a scout-mindset-y subpopulation (or at least, a group with more correct beliefs about the relevant topics). That subpopulation could be composed of either humans (cf. “pivotal act”), or of Vision 2 AIs.
Here’s another way to say it, maybe. I think you’re maybe imagining a dichotomy where either AI is doing what we want it to do (which is normal human stuff like scientific R&D), or the AI is plotting to take over. I’m suggesting that there’s a third murky domain where the person wants something that he maybe wouldn’t want upon reflection, but where “upon reflection” is kinda indeterminate because he could be manipulated into wanting different things depending on how they’re framed. This third domain is important because it contains decisions about politics and society and institutions and ethics and so on. I have concerns that getting an AI to “perform well” in this murky domain is not feasible via a bootstrap thing that starts from the approval of random people; rather, I think a good solution would have to look more like an AI which is internally able to do the kinds of reflection and thinking that humans do (but where the AI has the benefit of more knowledge, insight, time, etc.). And that requires that the AI have a certain kind of “autonomy” to reflect on the big picture of what it’s doing and why. I think that kind of “autonomy” is different than how you’re using the term, but if done well (a big “if”!), it would open up a lot of options.
Tl;dr
When people work towards making a good future in regards to Transformative AI (TAI), what’s the vision of the future that they have in mind and are working towards?
I’ll propose four (caricatured) answers that different people seem to give:
For each of these four, I will go through:
I’ll interject a lot of my own opinions throughout, including a suggestion that, on the current margin, the community should be putting more direct effort into technical work towards contingency-planning for Vision 2.
Warning 1: Oversimplifications. This document is full of oversimplifications and caricatures. But hopefully it’s a useful starting point for certain purposes.
Warning 2: Jargon & Unexplained Assumptions. Lots of both; my target audience here is pretty familiar with the AGI safety and alignment literature, and buys into widely-shared assumptions within that literature. But DM me if something seems confusing or dubious, and I’ll try to fix it.
Vision 1: “Helper AIs”—AIs doing specifically what humans want them to do
1.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
By and large, people in this camp have an assumption that TAI will look, and act, and be trained, much like LLMs, but they’ll work better. They also typically have an assumption of slow takeoff, very high compute requirements for powerful AI, and relatively few big actors who are training and running AIs (but many more actors using AI through an API).
There are two common big-picture stories here:
1.2 Potential causes for concern
1.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
Vision 2: “Autonomous AIs”—AIs out in the world, doing whatever they think is best
2.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
By and large, people in this camp have an assumption that TAI will be more in the category of humans, animals, and “RL agents” like AlphaStar. They often talk about AIs that think, figure things out, exhibit plan and foresight, come up with and autonomously implement clever out-of-the-box ways to solve their problems, etc. The AIs are generally assumed to do online learning (a.k.a. “continual learning”) as they figure out new things about the world, thus getting more and more competent over time without needing new human-provided training data, just as humans themselves do (individually and in groups). Also, a few people in this camp (not me) think that it’s very important in this story that the AI has a robotic body.[2]
As I mentioned in Vision 1 above, there’s no sharp line between the helper AIs of Vision 1 and the truly-autonomous AIs of Vision 2. For example, one can imagine a continuum from a ‘sycophantic servant AI’ that does whatever gets immediate approval from the human; to a ‘parent AI’ that may ask the human’s opinion, and care a lot about it, but also be willing to overrule that opinion in favor of (what it sees as) the human’s long-term best interest; to a ‘independent AI’ that could operate just fine without ever meeting a human in the first place. For clarity, I’ll focus discussion on a pretty extreme version of Vision 2.
In that case, an important conceptual distinction (as compared to Vision 1) is related to AI goals:
In Vision 1, there’s a pretty straightforward answer of what the AI is supposed to be trying to do—i.e., whatever the human supervisor had in mind, which can be inferred pretty well from some combination of general human data (from which the AI can get context, unspoken assumptions, etc.) and talking to the human in question (from which the AI can get details). The implementation side is by no means straightforward, but in Vision 1, you at least basically know what you’re hoping for.
By contrast, in Vision 2, it’s head-scratching to even say what the AI is supposed to be doing. We’re expecting the AIs to make lots of decisions where “do what the human wants” is not actionable—there might be no human around to ask, and/or not enough time to ask them, and/or the considerations might involve a lot of background knowledge or context that humans don’t know, and/or this may be a weird situation where humans would be very unsure (or even mistaken) about what they would want even if those humans did understand all the context and consequences. Recall, we’re generally expecting the AIs to go invent new science and technology, and build their own idiosyncratic concept-spaces, etc., and then, in this new world, which is out-of-distribution relative to all its prior experiences and human data, we generally expect the AIs to continue to make lots of high-context decisions on the fly without necessarily checking in with humans.
So that’s a problem. The paths I’ve heard of for tackling this problem seem to be:[3]
The most conceptually-straightforward version of (C) is to start with Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) of unusually decent and upstanding humans, then make it far more competent via speeding it up, tweaking it, adding more virtual cortical neurons, etc. After all, if it’s possible for humans to make decisions we’re happy about, directly or indirectly, then it’s possible in principle for WBEs of those humans to make those same good decisions too; and conversely, if it’s not possible for humans to make good decisions, directly or indirectly, then we’re screwed no matter what.
Another variation on (C) (my favorite!) involves “brain-like AGI” with (the better parts of) reverse-engineered human social instincts, more on which in 2.3 below.
2.2 Potential causes for concern
2.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
I thinkEncultured AIis trying to do something related to that?Whoops, nope, they’ve pivoted.2.4 Hang on there Steve, this is your vision? This is what you actually want?
It’s important to distinguish “trying to make this vision happen” from “contingency-planning for this vision”. Taking them separately:
Vision 3: Supercharged biological human brains (via intelligence-enhancement or merging-with-AI)
3.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
3.2 Potential causes for concern
3.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
Vision 4: Don’t build TAI
4.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
4.2 Potential causes for concern
4.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
(Thanks Seth Herd, Linda Linsefors, Charlie Steiner, and Adam Marblestone for critical comments on earlier drafts.)
One of many challenges is that this kind of scenario planning leans on lots of technical questions about how future AI will work in detail, how competent it will be at different tasks, how much compute it will take to run (both at first, and in the longer term), and so on. It also leans on social questions, like how institutions and individual decision-makers will react in different (unprecedented) circumstances. And it also depends on various aspects of the “tech tree”, i.e. what inventions may be invented in the future. These are all really hard questions, so maybe it’s no surprise that reasonable people wind up with different opinions.
By the way, this is a prominent example of my more general rant that there has been insufficient progress and professionalization around thinking through strategies and scenarios of what might happen as we transition into TAI. Part of the problem is that it’s really inherently hard and complicated, with a million rabbit-holes and no empirical feedback; and part of the problem is that it sounds like “weird sci-fi stuff”, so academics generally won’t touch it (besides FHI, to their credit). I’m not really sure how to make this situation better though. (There are a bunch of long TAI-related technical reports from OpenPhil; I have my complaints, but I think that’s a good genre.)
I strongly expect that future powerful autonomous AIs will be able to use teleoperated robot bodies, with very little practice, just as humans can use teleoperated robot bodies with very little practice. I don’t think it’s very important that future AIs have robot bodies, in the human or animal sense. For example, lifelong-quadriplegic humans can be remarkably intelligent. More discussion of “embodiment” here.
One can imagine other related scenarios such as “make an AI that wants to set up a Long Reflection and cede power to whatever the result is”, or “make an AI that sets up and oversees an atomic communitarian thing”. But I think those aren’t an alternative to (A,B,C) in the text, but rather a broad strategy that we might hope the AIs with (A,B,C) type motivations will choose to pursue. After all, you can’t just wave a wand and get a Long Reflection; you need to make it happen, in the real world, including setting up appropriate institutions, rules of deliberation, etc., and that would involve the AI making lots of autonomous decisions, long before there is any Long Reflection outputs to defer to. So the AI still needs to have its own motivations that we’re happy about.
See e.g. Carl Shulman on the possible time-course of AI takeover.
“But what about comparative advantage?” you say. Well, I would point to the example of a moody 7-year-old child in today’s world. Not only would nobody hire that kid into their office or high-tech factory, but they would probably pay good money to keep him out, because he would only mess stuff up. And if the 7yo could legally found his own company, we would never expect it to get beyond a lemonade stand, given competition from dramatically more capable and experienced adults. So it will be, I claim, with all humans in a world of advanced autonomous AIs, if the humans survive.
I’m not an expert, but see here (including replies) for some references.
In this context, “working on Whole Brain Emulation (WBE)” would include both “making WBE happen” and “arguing about whether WBE is a good idea in the first place”. My own opinion is that WBE is quite unlikely to happen before AGI (and in particular, very unlikely to happen before having brain-like AGI that is not a WBE of a particular person); but if it did happen, it could be a very useful ingredient in a larger plan, with some care and effort. Others disagree with WBE being desirable in the first place; see e.g. here.