Those inferences are directly contradicted by the graph if read straightforwardly, and indeed I don't think METR itself asserted them as a conclusion at all?

METR says that hyperbolic growth happening is plausible from other graphs (as opposed to the AECI one). Quoting the METR report:

We may have missed recent further acceleration. The rate of growth could be undergoing continuous acceleration, e.g. hyperbolic growth. While we do not see clear evidence of this in the AECI trends, there is other evidence that makes this seem more plausible which Anthropic redacted.

Overall, how much you update here would depend substantially on your priors about how acceleration is likely to happen and how much you respect/trust the METR employees who wrote this.