AI ALIGNMENT FORUM
AF

Takeoff and Takeover in the Past and Future

Dec 31, 2020 by Daniel Kokotajlo

Over the past two years I ended up writing multiple well-received posts about AI takeoff and AI takeover, usually involving historical case-studies to serve as precedents and analogies. Since they all fit a theme, I've bundled them together in a sequence.

The most important posts are "The Date of AI Takeover..." and "Against GDP as a Metric..." If you only read two posts, read those. If you only read three, read those + the "Cortes, Pizarro, and Afonso... " one. I've put them in suggested order of reading, but I have no evidence that this is the best order. You may prefer to read them in the order in which they were written, or in order of highest to lowest karma/score.

46The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
2
53Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
6y
41
17Lessons on AI Takeover from the conquistadors
Daniel Kokotajlo, Bird Concept
5y
0
39Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
6y
34
40Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
6
27Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
10
53Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
10
120What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
33