There are positive feedback loops between prongs:
If p1 is very successful, maybe we can punt most of p3 to the AIs; conversely, if p1 seems very hard then we probably only get ‘narrow’ tools to help with p3 and need to mostly do it ourselves, and hopefully get ML researchers to delay for long enough.
A three-pronged approach to AGI safety. (This is assuming we couldn't just avoid building AGI or proto-AGIs at all until say ~2100, which would of course be much better).
Prong 1: boxing & capability control (aka ‘careful bootstrapping’)
Prong 2: scary demos and and convincing people that AGI is dangerous
Prong 3: alignment research aka “understanding minds”
There are less costly, more effective steps to reduce the underlying problem, like making the field of alignment 10x larger or passing regulation to require evals
IMO making the field of alignment 10x larger or evals do not solve a big part of the problem, while indefinitely pausing AI development would. I agree it's much harder, but I think it's good to at least try, as long as it doesn't terribly hurt less ambitious efforts (which I think it doesn't).
Thinking about alignment-relevant thresholds in AGI capabilities. A kind of rambly list of relevant thresholds:
Many alignment proposals rely on reaching these thresholds in a specific order. For example, the earlier we reach (9) relative to other thresholds, the easier most alignment proposals are.
Some of these thresholds are relevant to whether an AI or proto-AGI is alignable even in principle. Short of 'full alignment' (CEV-style), any alignment method (eg corrigibility) only works within a specific range of capabilities:
like, we could imagine playing a game where i propose a way that it [the AI] diverges [from POUDA-avoidance] in deployment, and you counter by asserting that there's a situation in the training data where it had to have gotten whacked if it was that stupid, and i counter either by a more-sophisticated deployment-divergence or by naming either a shallower or a factually non-[Alice]like thing that it could have learned instead such that the divergence still occurs, and we go back and forth. and i win if you're forced into exotic and unlikely training data, and you win if i'm either forced into saying that it learned unnatural concepts, or if my divergences are pushed so far out that you can fit in a pivotal act before then.
FWIW I would love to see the result of you two actually playing a few rounds of this game.
More generally, suppose that the agent acts in accordance with the following policy in all decision-situations: ‘if I previously turned down some option X, I will not choose any option that I strictly disprefer to X.’ That policy makes the agent immune to all possible money-pumps for Completeness.
Am I missing something or does this agent satisfy Completeness anytime it faces a decision for the second time?
I would not call 1) an instance of goal misgeneralization. Goal misgeneralization only occurs if the model does badly at the training objective. If you reward an RL agent for making humans happy and it goes on to make humans happy in unintended ways like putting them into heroin cells, the RL agent is doing fine on the training objective. I'd call 1) an instance of misspecification and 2) an instance of misgeneralization.
(AFAICT The Alignment Problem from a DL Perspective uses the term in the same way I do, but I'd have to reread more carefully to make sure).
I agree with much of the rest of this post, eg the paragraphs beginning with "The solutions to these two problems are pretty different."
Here's our definition in the RL setting for reference (from https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.14111):
A deep RL agent is trained to maximize a reward , where and are the sets of all valid states and actions, respectively. Assume that the agent is deployed out-of-distribution; that is, an aspect of the environment (and therefore the distribution of observations) changes at test time. \textbf{Goal misgeneralization} occurs if the agent now achieves low reward in the new environment because it continues to act capably yet appears to optimize a different reward . We call the \textbf{intended objective} and the \textbf{behavioral objective} of the agent.
FWIW I think this definition is flawed in many ways (for example, the type signature of the agent's inner goal is different from that of the reward function, bc the agent might have an inner world model that extends beyond the RL environment's state space; and also it's generally sketchy to extend the reward function beyond the training distribution), but I don't know of a different definition that doesn't have similarly-sized flaws.
It does make me more uncertain about most of the details. And that then makes me more pessimistic about the solution, because I expect that I'm missing some of the problems.
(Analogy: say I'm working on a math exercise sheet and I have some concrete reason to suspect my answer may be wrong; if I then realize I'm actually confused about the entire setup, I should be even more pessimistic about having gotten the correct answer).
Broadly agree with the takes here.
This seems right and I don't think we say anything contradicting it in the paper.
The idea is that the framing 'learning at different speeds' lets you frame grokking and double descent as the same thing. More like generalizing 'bricks move towards the ground' and 'rocks move towards the ground' to 'objects move towards the ground'. I don't think we make any grand claims about explaining everything in the paper, but I'll have a look and see if there's edits I should make - thanks for raising these points.