What 2026 looks like (Daniel's Median Future)

I'd additionally expect the death of pseudonymity on the Internet, as AIs will find it easy to detect similar writing style and correlated posting behavior.  What at present takes detective work will in the future be cheaply automated, and we will finally be completely in Zuckerberg's desired world where nobody can maintain a second identity online.

Oh, and this is going to be retroactive, so be ready for the consequences of everything you've ever said online.

Understanding “Deep Double Descent”

If this post is selected, I'd like to see the followup made into an addendum—I think it adds a very important piece, and it should have been nominated itself.

What failure looks like

I think this post (and similarly, Evan's summary of Chris Olah's views) are essential both in their own right and as mutual foils to MIRI's research agenda. We see related concepts (mesa-optimization originally came out of Paul's talk of daemons in Solomonoff induction, if I remember right) but very different strategies for achieving both inner and outer alignment. (The crux of the disagreement seems to be the probability of success from adapting current methods.)

Strongly recommended for inclusion.

Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage

It's hard to know how to judge a post that deems itself superseded by a post from a later year, but I lean toward taking Daniel at his word and hoping we survive until the 2021 Review comes around.

Chris Olah’s views on AGI safety

The content here is very valuable, even if the genre of "I talked a lot with X and here's my articulation of X's model" comes across to me as a weird intellectual ghostwriting. I can't think of a way around that, though.

The Parable of Predict-O-Matic

This reminds me of That Alien Message, but as a parable about mesa-alignment rather than outer alignment. It reads well, and helps make the concepts more salient. Recommended.

Radical Probabilism

Remind me which bookies count and which don't, in the context of the proofs of properties?

If any computable bookie is allowed, a non-Bayesian is in trouble against a much larger bookie who can just (maybe through its own logical induction) discover who the bettor is and how to exploit them.

[EDIT: First version of this comment included "why do convergence bettors count if they don't know the bettor will oscillate", but then I realized the answer while Abram was composing his response, so I edited that part out. Editing it back in so that Abram's reply has context.]

Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms

The claim that came to my mind is that the conscious mind is the mesa-optimizer here, the original outer optimizer being a riderless elephant.

What specific dangers arise when asking GPT-N to write an Alignment Forum post?

This was literally the first output, with no rerolls in the middle! (Although after posting it, I did some other trials which weren't as good, so I did get lucky on the first one. Randomness parameter was set to 0.5.)

I cut it off there because the next paragraph just restated the previous one.

What specific dangers arise when asking GPT-N to write an Alignment Forum post?

(sorry, couldn't resist)

This is the first post in an Alignment Forum sequence explaining the approaches both MIRI and OpenAI staff believe are the most promising means of auditing the cognition of very complex machine learning models. We will be discussing each approach in turn, with a focus on how they differ from one another. 

The goal of this series is to provide a more complete picture of the various options for auditing AI systems than has been provided so far by any single person or organization. The hope is that it will help people make better-informed decisions about which approach to pursue. 

We have tried to keep our discussion as objective as possible, but we recognize that there may well be disagreements among us on some points. If you think we've made an error, please let us know! 

If you're interested in reading more about the history of AI research and development, see: 

1. What Is Artificial Intelligence? (Wikipedia) 2. How Does Machine Learning Work? 3. How Can We Create Trustworthy AI? 

The first question we need to answer is: what do we mean by "artificial intelligence"? 

The term "artificial intelligence" has been used to refer to a surprisingly broad range of things. The three most common uses are: 

The study of how to create machines that can perceive, think, and act in ways that are typically only possible for humans. The study of how to create machines that can learn, using data, in ways that are typically only possible for humans. The study of how to create machines that can reason and solve problems in ways that are typically only possible for humans. 

In this sequence, we will focus on the third definition. We believe that the first two are much less important for the purpose of AI safety research, and that they are also much less tractable. 

Why is it so important to focus on the third definition? 

The third definition is important because, as we will discuss in later posts, it is the one that creates the most risk. It is also the one that is most difficult to research, and so it requires the most attention.

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