Fun fact: AI-2027 estimates that getting to ASI might take the equivalent of a 100-person team of top human AI research talent working for tens of thousands of years.

I’m curious why ASI would take so much work. What exactly is the R&D labor supposed to be doing each day, that adds up to so much effort? I’m curious how people are thinking about that, if they buy into this kind of picture. Thanks :)

(Calculation details: For example, in October 2027 of the AI-2027 modal scenario, they have “330K superhuman AI researcher copies thinking at 57x human speed”, which is 1.6 million person-years of research in that month alone. And that’s mostly going towards inventing ASI, I think. Did I get that right?)

(My own opinion, stated without justification, is that LLMs are not a paradigm that can scale to ASI, but after some future AI paradigm shift, there will be very very little R&D separating “this type of AI can do anything importantly useful at all” and “full-blown superintelligence”. Like maybe dozens or hundreds of person-years, or whatever, as opposed to millions. More on this in a (hopefully) forthcoming post.)