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**Aumann's agreement theorem**, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common ~~priors,~~priors, and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

- The Modesty Argument
- Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
- The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
- The Proper Use of Humility
- Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
- Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
- Bayesian Judo

- A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

- (PDF)
- (PDF, Talk video)

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Related tags and wikis:Disagreement, Modesty, Modesty argument, Aumann agreement, The Aumann Game## Highlighted

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