There has been some confusion about whether people are using inside views or all-things-considered betting odds when they talk about P(doom).  Which do you give by default?  What are your numbers for each?

New Answer
New Comment

1 Answers sorted by

Independent impressions (= inside view in your terminology), though my all-things-considered belief (= betting odds in your terminology) is pretty similar.

4 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 12:28 PM

Could you explain more about the difference.and what it looks like to give one vs. the other?

When betting, you should discount the scenarios where you're unable to enjoy the reward to zero. In less accurate terms, any doom scenario that involves you personally dying should be treated as impossible, because the expected utility of winning is zero.

Oh, this is definitely not what I meant.

"Betting odds" == Your actual belief after factoring in other people's opinions

"Inside view" == What your models predict, before factoring in other opinions or the possibility of being completely wrong

Though I understood what you meant, perhaps a clearer terminology is all-things-considered beliefs vs. independent impressions.