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How common is it for one entity to have a 3+ year technological lead on its nearest competitor?

by Daniel Kokotajlo
17th Nov 2019
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How common is it for one entity to have a 3+ year technological lead on its nearest competitor?
2Rob Bensinger
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[-]Rob Bensinger5y20Nomination for 2019 Review

I want to see more attempts to answer this question. Also related to another post I nominated: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PKy8NuNPknenkDY74/soft-takeoff-can-still-lead-to-decisive-strategic-advantage 

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I'm writing a follow-up to my blog post on soft takeoff and DSA, and I am looking for good examples of tech companies or academic research projects that are ~3+ years ahead of their nearest competitors in the technology(ies) they are focusing on.

Exception: I'm not that interested in projects that are pursuing some niche technology, such that no one else wants to compete with them. Also: I'm especially interested in examples that are analogous to AGI in some way, e.g. because they deal with present-day AI or because they have a feedback loop effect.

Even better would be someone with expertise on the area being able to answer the title question directly. Best of all would be some solid statistics on the matter. Thanks in advance!

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40Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA