Nominated Posts for the 2019 Review

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2019 Review Discussion

[Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it's just one argument among many. Edit: Also, thanks to feedback from others, especially Paul, I intend to write a significantly improved version of this post in the next two weeks. Edit: I never did, because in the course of writing my response I realized the original argument made a big mistake. See this review.]

I have on several occasions heard people say things like this:

The original Bostrom/Yudkowsky paradigm envisioned a single AI built by a single AI project, undergoing intelligence explosion all by itself and attaining a decisive strategic advantage as a result. However, this is very unrealistic. Discontinuous jumps in technological capability are very rare, and it is very implausible that one project

It seems like there are strong reasons to expect that the post AI coalitions will look very different from the current world economy, though I agree that they might look like a world economy. For instance, imagine world GDP grows by 100x. It seems totally plausible that Google/TSMC/OpenAI revenue grows by 50x relative to typical other companies which only 2x revenue.

Then, power structures might be dramatically different from current power structures. (Even if the US Government is effectively co-running AI lab(s), I still expect that the power structures ... (read more)

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