AI ALIGNMENT FORUMTags
AF

Forecasting & Prediction

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Applied to Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress by Rob Bensinger at 3d

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Applied to Base Rates and Reference Classes by Ruben Bloom at 3d

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Applied to Laplace's rule of succession by Ege Erdil at 5d

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Applied to Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds" by Rob Bensinger at 5d

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Applied to Forecasting: Zeroth and First Order by Ruben Bloom at 10d

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Applied to Televised sports exist to gamble with testosterone levels using prediction skill by Ruben Bloom at 13d

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Applied to Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021. by Ruben Bloom at 1mo

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Applied to [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang, Part 2 by Lsusr at 1mo

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Applied to Metaculus is seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions by christianM at 2mo

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Applied to Possible Worlds after Prediction Take-off by isaduan at 2mo

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Applied to AI Prediction Services and Risks of War by isaduan at 2mo

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Applied to A Framework of Prediction Technologies by isaduan at 2mo

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Applied to Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021. by Ruben Bloom at 2mo

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Applied to How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus? by CharlesD at 2mo

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Applied to [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang by Lsusr at 2mo

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Applied to My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections by Ruben Bloom at 2mo

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Applied to [Link post] When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds by Ruben Bloom at 3mo

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Applied to Growth of prediction markets over time? by Ruben Bloom at 3mo

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Applied to Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021 by Ruben Bloom at 3mo