Like a collector, I gather resources and information. Storing it and categorizing it. I do this for any project I undertake. But for Forecasting AI Futures, I realized the collection might be quite useful for others.

So, I set to work on restructuring it and make it look nice!

Here is the result: Forecasting AI Futures Resource Hub

The resource hub is still in its infancy but will grow to become more comprehensive over time. If you have ideas for how to improve it—helping it mature into its adult form—they are very welcome.

There are two major parts. The Prediction Database:

And the Forecasting AI Ecosystem:

I’ve also included some of the resources in this post.

Key Links

Forecasting ecosystem: 🗺️Map of the Prediction Market & Forecasting Ecosystem
Introduction to Prediction Markets: Prediction markets: can betting be good for the world?
New to Forecasting? Forecasting & Prediction - LessWrong

Some remarks

AI trends: Analyzing trends in AI development and investments is crucial for forecasting AI. There is an organization doing exactly this: Epoch AI. See their collection of Machine Learning Trends.
Prediction accuracy and calibration: Blindly deferring to a prediction without verifying its reliability is unwise. Check calibration and accuracy (e.g. Brier score). See Calibration City for calibration and accuracy data for popular prediction markets and Metaculus. Credible forecasters may publish their track records, like this track record for the Samotsvety forecasting group.
Forecasting applications: Forecasting is a powerful decision-making tool. For instance, Convergence Analysis combines AI scenario forecasting with governance research and recommendations (see their Theory of Change).
Forecasting bots: One AI capability of particular interest to forecasters is the ability to generate accurate predictions. AIs are, as far as I know, still lacking in forecasting skills compared to professional human forecasters. I have included some information, predictions, and resources regarding AI forecasting agents in the resource hub.

The prediction database

The current space of predictions
The prediction database highlights where forecasting communities are focusing their attention, and what they are missing. It is a tool for discovering questions that have yet to be asked—and then asking them.
Why a hierarchical structure?
A spreadsheet would have been more flexible than the

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Collections and Resources

See Also